Christine Lagarde, 2025\u2019te k\u00fcresel d\u00fczenin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa i\u00e7in bir \u201ck\u00fcresel euro an\u0131\u201d yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Carsten Brzeski ise Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bu an\u0131 hen\u00fcz hak etmedi\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Brzeski bunu, par\u00e7al\u0131 sermaye piyasalar\u0131na (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n hisse, tahvil gibi varl\u0131klara farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelerde farkl\u0131 kurallarla eri\u015fmesi ve piyasalar\u0131n tek bir \u00e7at\u0131 alt\u0131nda yeterince birle\u015fmemesi) ve iyi de\u011ferlendirilemeyen y\u00fcksek hanehalk\u0131 birikimlerine ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu unsurlar\u0131n euronun uluslararas\u0131 rol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Son 12 ayda Avrupa, Mart 2025\u2019te Tasarruf ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m Birli\u011fi\u2019ni ba\u015flatt\u0131. Di\u011fer ad\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda menkul k\u0131ymetle\u015ftirme (kredi gibi alacaklar\u0131n paketlenip menkul k\u0131ymet olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya sat\u0131lmas\u0131) reformu, piyasa entegrasyonu ve denetim paketi, g\u00fcncellenen \u00f6deme hizmetleri kurallar\u0131 ve Tasarruf ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m Hesaplar\u0131 tavsiyesi yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n savunma yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. AB savunma harcamalar\u0131 2022\u2019den bu yana %36 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131 ekonomisi, yaz aylar\u0131na kadar sermaye piyasalar\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapan ortak bir mektup g\u00f6nderdi. Makale bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te yap\u0131lan \u201ck\u00fcresel euro an\u0131\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bir y\u0131l sonra bile yap\u0131sal ad\u0131mlar\u0131n (kal\u0131c\u0131 ve kapsaml\u0131 d\u00fczenlemelerin) eksik oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Euro\/dolar paritesi (EUR\/USD: 1 euronun ka\u00e7 dolar etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren kur) dar bir bantta hareket ediyor; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve olumlu bir tetikleyicinin (piyasay\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde hareket ettiren haber\/veri) yoklu\u011funu yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Piyasa i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bant i\u00e7i seyrin s\u00fcrmesinin daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temel sorunlardan biri, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve ekonomik canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan, yeterince kullan\u0131lmayan b\u00fcy\u00fck hanehalk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri de bunu do\u011fruluyor: hanehalk\u0131 tasarruf oran\u0131 %14,2 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor ve 2020 \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu temel bask\u0131, euronun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeyen stratejileri destekliyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (out-of-the-money call: mevcut kura g\u00f6re k\u00e2r yazmas\u0131 i\u00e7in euronun daha da y\u00fckselmesi gereken al\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131p prim geliri elde etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak).<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00f6n eksikli\u011fi, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index (euronun beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 dip seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u201cima edilen volatilite\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuzlat\u0131r; b\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sermaye ba\u011flamadan olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya (fiyat\u0131n banttan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na) pozisyon alabilir. Uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket olursa k\u00e2r hedefler) yakla\u015fan ECB toplant\u0131lar\u0131 veya veriler piyasay\u0131 durgunluktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ECB ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Fed, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon nedeniyle \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kal\u0131rken (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi), Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n yaz sonuna do\u011fru ECB\u2019den faiz indirimi ihtimalini daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 euronun aleyhine \u00f6nemli bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r ve euro i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131-y\u00f6nl\u00fc ya da yatay bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te savunma harcamalar\u0131 ve Tasarruf ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m Birli\u011fi taraf\u0131nda at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar, par\u00e7al\u0131 sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ataletin (ilerlemeyi yava\u015flatan yap\u0131sal diren\u00e7) a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli olmad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerinin talep etti\u011fi sermaye piyasalar\u0131 birli\u011fini derinle\u015ftirecek anlaml\u0131 bir siyasi anla\u015fma h\u00e2l\u00e2 bekleniyor. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedik\u00e7e, eurodaki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201cEuro an\u0131\u201d m\u0131? Avrupa h\u00e2l\u00e2 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z: par\u00e7al\u0131 sermaye piyasalar\u0131 ve at\u0131l hane tasarruflar\u0131 euronun k\u00fcresel rol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. EUR\/USD dar bantta, volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; ECB-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 euroyu bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46773\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}