Societe Generale, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY: dolar\u0131n euro, yen gibi ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) ABD ile di\u011fer ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki **faiz farklar\u0131** ve **b\u00fcy\u00fcme farklar\u0131**ndaki (ekonomilerin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki fark) de\u011fi\u015fimlere ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Banka, \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f sonras\u0131 ABD\u2019nin 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizlerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k DXY\u2019nin sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, dolar\u0131n ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Ocak 2025\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor. Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019ten sava\u015f ba\u015flayana kadar 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 3,4\u20133,7 band\u0131nda kal\u0131rken DXY 96\u2013101 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde EUR\/USD (euro\/dolar paritesi) 1,14\u20131,21 band\u0131nda seyretti. Sava\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra habere g\u00f6re 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizler y\u00fczde 6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizlerinin, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerdeki benzer vadeli tahvil faizlerinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. Buna dayanarak DXY\u2019nin daha fazla y\u00fckselme alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu, bankan\u0131n 2026 sonu DXY tahmininin Bloomberg piyasa ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (kurumlar\u0131n genel tahminlerinin ortalamas\u0131) \u00fczerinde bulundu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD faizlerindeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f ile dolar\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi aras\u0131ndaki fark \u015fu anda temel g\u00fcndem. Grafi\u011fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi (devletin 2 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ba\u015flayan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan bu yana y\u00fczde 6,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karken Dolar Endeksi ancak \u015fimdi 108 seviyesini test ediyor. Bu tablo, dolar\u0131n tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 (piyasan\u0131n beklenen faiz ve riskleri fiyata yans\u0131tmas\u0131n\u0131) yakalamak i\u00e7in y\u00fckselme pay\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n temelinde kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kolay d\u00fc\u015fmemesi) var. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede kararl\u0131. Nisan ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksinin, oynak kalemler olan g\u0131da ve enerjiyi d\u0131\u015flayan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek y\u00fczde 4,1 oldu. Bu da Fed\u2019e \u201cdaha g\u00fcvercin\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatma\/indirme e\u011filimine) ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in fazla alan b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. ABD verileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece tahvil faizleri ve dolarda y\u00f6n yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Basit bir y\u00f6ntem, dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir endeksi takip eden fon) \u00f6rne\u011fin UUP gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak; trendin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in A\u011fustos veya Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeleri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. ABD Dolar Endeksi vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) daha do\u011frudan bir tercih olur.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Fed, pandemi sonras\u0131 enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na (agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Dolar Endeksi birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde 90\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan 114\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD faiz beklentileri (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faizleri \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi) d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k ara geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ortam da bunu and\u0131r\u0131yor; b\u00f6yle d\u00f6nemlerde \u201cgeriden yakalama\u201d hareketi kazan\u00e7l\u0131 olabiliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tahvil faizleri u\u00e7tu, DXY neden geride? SocGen\u2019e g\u00f6re faiz-b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon dolara ek y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor; Fed s\u0131k\u0131, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k >%6, hedef 2026 sonu piyasadan yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46770\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}