\u00c7ekya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (CNB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan bir r\u00f6portajda, maliye politikas\u0131na (devletin vergi ve harcama politikas\u0131) ve bu y\u0131l daha geni\u015f bir b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na (gelir-gider fark\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) de\u011finildi. Ayr\u0131ca CNB faizinin, enflasyona ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faizine g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 konu\u015fulsa da, CNB\u2019nin daha temkinli bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor (fiyatlara yans\u0131t\u0131yor). Ekonomistlerin temel senaryosu ise politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olmamas\u0131. Bunun nedeni, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda baz etkisi (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n y\u00fcksek\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon hesab\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak etkilemesi) nedeniyle enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/CZK son haftalarda 24.300\u201324.400 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha zay\u0131f k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) ve temkinli CNB\u2019nin, pariteyi bu band\u0131n \u00fcst taraf\u0131na itmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekya Merkez Bankas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha yumu\u015fak bir duru\u015f sinyali veriyor. \u0130\u015flemciler (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat yapan piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynarken, ba\u015fkandan gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar politikan\u0131n daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na (faiz art\u0131rma ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rma) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir isteksizlik oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, EUR\/CZK\u2019de olas\u0131 bir yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamaya i\u015faret ediyor; parite 24.300\u201324.400 gibi dar bir bantta kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 enflasyon verisi %2,1 ile yatay geldi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in acil bir ad\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131 yaratmad\u0131. CNB\u2019nin temel politika faizi %5,25 seviyesinde. Bu oran hem yurti\u00e7i enflasyondan hem de ECB\u2019nin %3,00\u2019l\u00fck mevduat faizinden belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131, bankaya faizi sabit tutma alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda da geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunun arkas\u0131nda Almanya\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretiminin (fabrika \u00fcretimi) yava\u015flamas\u0131na dair endi\u015feler var. 2025 sonlar\u0131nda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) korunan\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; benzer bir hareket yeniden ya\u015fanabilir. Temkinli bir merkez bankas\u0131 ile tedirgin k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n birle\u015fimi, genellikle korunan\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, mevcut 24.400 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin (fiyat\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcst seviye) biraz \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131ml\u0131 (strike) EUR\/CZK al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, korunan\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler ve piyasan\u0131n gere\u011finden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) faiz beklentilerinden yararlan\u0131r. Opsiyonlar, kur bantta kal\u0131rsa veya beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse, riski \u00f6nceden belirli tutarlarla s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
CNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131, geni\u015fleyen b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli: %5,25 politika faizi ve baz etkisi enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir. Piyasa 3 art\u0131\u015f fiyatlasa da EUR\/CZK\u2019de 24,40 \u00fcst\u00fcne zay\u0131flama senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46767"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46767\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}