MUFG\u2019den Derek Halpenny, yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa, k\u00fcresel tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilime ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki (FX: d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri) son hamlesinin etkisini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n, Japon devlet tahvillerinin (JGB: Japon Hazine tahvilleri) di\u011fer \u00fclke tahvillerine g\u00f6re zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131na ve enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faizin (reel getiri: faizden enflasyon etkisi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalan kazan\u00e7) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Halpenny, ham petrol\u00fcn yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011fini; ABD\u2019de enflasyon verisinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve devlet tahvili piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 (sovereign bond: devlet tahvili) rahats\u0131z etti\u011fini ifade ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirken ek risk yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel tahvil faizlerinin yeniden y\u00fckseldi\u011fi, bunun da yen \u00fczerinde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 kurdu\u011fu belirtiliyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 158\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bu seviyenin 6 May\u0131s\u2019taki son MoF m\u00fcdahalesiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin, 30 Nisan\u2019da ilk m\u00fcdahalenin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zirvelere yeniden yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ancak her iki m\u00fcdahalenin de hen\u00fcz resmen do\u011frulanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor. Enflasyon y\u00fckselirken reel getirilerin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bunun da USD\/JPY\u2019de yeni bir sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in MoF ve BoJ\u2019dan yeni d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kur \u00fczerinde etki yaratma) riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Temelde yeni bask\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden birikti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; t\u0131pk\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi. K\u00fcresel tahvil faizlerindeki art\u0131\u015f ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f Japonya i\u00e7in zor bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 yak\u0131n zamanda 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n maliyeti art\u0131yor; bu da do\u011fal olarak para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ana belirleyici unsur, Japonya ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler, \u00f6zellikle ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,8\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken Japonya tahvil faizleri %1 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yeni sat\u0131p dolar gibi daha y\u00fcksek getirili varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu, Nisan ve May\u0131s 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz MoF m\u00fcdahalelerini tetikleyen dinami\u011fin ayn\u0131s\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert hareket etmesi) d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret ediyor; USD\/JPY\u2019de ana y\u00f6n yukar\u0131. Yeni resmi m\u00fcdahale tehdidi, yukar\u0131 hareketlerin aniden sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle kesilebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu (opsiyon: belli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak; y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kullan\u0131labilecek bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
Pariteyi 162,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, MoF\u2019un ge\u00e7en y\u0131l m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi 158 seviyesinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde. Faiz fark\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 USD\/JPY geri \u00e7ekilmeleri piyasa taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Japon yetkililerden gelecek s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar (verbal warnings: do\u011frudan i\u015flem yapmadan, kur i\u00e7in \u201cyak\u0131ndan izliyoruz\u201d gibi mesajlar) yeni bir m\u00fcdahalenin yakla\u015fabilece\u011fine dair \u00f6nemli sinyal olarak izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen yeniden bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: petrol ve k\u00fcresel tahvil faizleri t\u0131rman\u0131rken BoJ\u2019un sabit faizi MoF m\u00fcdahalesinin etkisini siliyor. USD\/JPY 158\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131; 162,5 hedefiyle volatilite ve yeni m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46755\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}