Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc dolara kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de de\u011fer kaybetti ve 1,3337 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, \u0130ngiltere kabinesinde artan istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve yeni bir mali krize yol a\u00e7abilecek \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7 bo\u015flu\u011fu\u201d endi\u015fesinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sonras\u0131 geldi.<\/p>\n
Sa\u011fl\u0131k Bakan\u0131 Wes Streeting\u2019in Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc istifa etmesi, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftaki yerel se\u00e7imlerde al\u0131nan zay\u0131f sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi i\u00e7inde Starmer\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revi b\u0131rakmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi i\u00e7indeki liderlik kavgas\u0131, \u201cda\u011f\u0131n\u0131k bir lider de\u011fi\u015fimi\u201d endi\u015fesini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Bu durum, yeni bir liderin b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinini (kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma) zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi ve mali kriz korkular\u0131n\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini de g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, yeni verilerin ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle de\u011ferini korudu. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (hanehalk\u0131 harcamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) ve haftal\u0131k \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren erken g\u00f6sterge) a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden sinyaller de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru ya da 2027\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini y\u00fckseltti. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc veri takvimi sakin.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping aras\u0131ndaki zirvede kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. A\u00e7\u0131klamalar olumlu olsa da piyasalar, ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131na dair somut ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 veya H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrerken, GBP\/USD paritesinde (sterlin\/dolar kuru) en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131rken, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz ihtimaliyle destek buluyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, sterlinde ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Westminster\u2019daki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor ve bu da do\u011frudan i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. GBP\/USD\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %8 ortalamaya g\u00f6re sert bir art\u0131\u015f. Bu durum, sterlin i\u00e7in \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) veya \u201cput spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) almay\u0131; hem beklenen fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden hem de sigorta maliyetindeki (opsiyon primi) art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanmak i\u00e7in daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo daha \u00f6nce, 2022 sonbahar\u0131ndaki mali kriz d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde siyasi kaosun kurda ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febildi\u011fi izlenmi\u015f, GBP\/USD haftalar i\u00e7inde %10\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn de mali a\u00e7\u0131dan sorumsuz bir y\u00f6netimin iktidara gelebilece\u011fi korkusu benzer bir risk alg\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; bu da sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketin ger\u00e7ek bir ihtimal oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark da belirginle\u015fiyor. ABD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Nisan 2026\u2019ya ait son enflasyon verisi %3,2 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti; ancak mevcut siyasi bo\u015fluk, BoE\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rarak talebi ve enflasyonu so\u011futmay\u0131) ve bu yolla para birimini desteklemesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlanma (k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemler) da bu olumsuz havay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin ivme kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. En g\u00fcncel Commitment of Traders raporuna g\u00f6re (ABD\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren resmi rapor) sterline kar\u015f\u0131 net \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d pozisyonlar (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan pozisyon) sadece son iki haftada 20 binden fazla kontrat artt\u0131. Bu, hedge fonlar\u0131n (y\u00fcksek riskli stratejiler uygulayan b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar) para biriminde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe aktif \u015fekilde oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin alarm veriyor: Kabinedeki istifa ve liderlik kriziyle GBP\/USD 1,3337\u2019ye geriledi. ABD verileri dolar\u0131 destekliyor, Fed faiz art\u0131rabilir. Oynakl\u0131k %14, putlar cazip; fonlar net short art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46754\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}