Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta siyasi gerilim artt\u0131. \u0130stifalar ve liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum, gelecekteki **maliye politikas\u0131**na (devletin vergi, harcama ve bor\u00e7lanma kararlar\u0131) ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Sterlin zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve bu harekette siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n pay\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Olas\u0131 haleflerin politika planlar\u0131 ise net de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Commerzbank, piyasan\u0131n bu riskleri hen\u00fcz tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Banka, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda **EUR\/GBP**\u2019nin (euro\/sterlin paritesi) y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Starmer \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 giderek artarken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi tablo d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fken haline geliyor. B\u00fct\u00e7e politikas\u0131 anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle Maliye Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Hazine) istifas\u0131, Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flatt\u0131; Starmer\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revde ne kadar kalabilece\u011fi sorgulan\u0131yor. Bu tablo sterlin i\u00e7in net bi\u00e7imde olumsuz.<\/p>\n
Sorun iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc: Siyasi belirsizlik genellikle bir para birimi i\u00e7in iyi de\u011fildir; ayr\u0131ca olas\u0131 yeni liderlerin hangi maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 tamamen belirsizdir. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n **10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili** faizleri (gilt; \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin devlet tahvili) bu hafta Alman devlet tahvillerine (bund) g\u00f6re fark\u0131n\u0131 **15 baz puan** art\u0131rd\u0131. (**Baz puan**, faiz farklar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u00fcr; 100 baz puan = y\u00fczde 1.) Bu, tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek **risk primi** (belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yani istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131maya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
2022 sonundaki tahvil piyasas\u0131 krizinde, maliye politikas\u0131na g\u00fcven sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 kaybolabildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc parti i\u00e7i \u00e7eki\u015fme ve net bir ekonomik plan\u0131n olmamas\u0131, o d\u00f6nemdeki t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n ilk i\u015faretlerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; 2024 genel se\u00e7imlerinden sonra g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00f6rece istikrar\u0131n tersine bir tablo var. Bu benzerlik, yeni hatalar\u0131n piyasalarda orant\u0131s\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte tepki do\u011furabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlindeki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen, bu siyasi risklerin piyasa fiyatlar\u0131na tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. **Opsiyon** piyasas\u0131nda (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) EUR\/GBP i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k **implied volatilite** (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi olas\u0131 fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) %8,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak **spot fiyat** (anl\u0131k piyasa fiyat\u0131) hen\u00fcz belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/GBP\u2019nin daha y\u00fcksek seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeye devam ediyoruz. **T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, sterlinin daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin y\u00fckseli\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yararlanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/GBP **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** sat\u0131n almak gibi. Bu belirsizlik, sterlin aleyhine belirgin bir y\u00f6n olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, son **\u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) \u0130malat PMI** verisi de g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. (**PMI**, sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde daralmaya i\u015faret eder.) May\u0131s i\u00e7in endeks beklenmedik \u015fekilde 48,9\u2019a gerileyerek daralma b\u00f6lgesine indi. Ekonominin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, siyasi kriz d\u00f6neminde sterlin i\u00e7in olumsuz bir zemin yarat\u0131yor ve para birimini yeni \u015foklara daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor. Liderlik tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 netle\u015fene kadar sterlin konusunda iyimser olmak i\u00e7in az neden g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Londra\u2019da siyasi kriz sterlini bask\u0131l\u0131yor: istifalar ve liderlik tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirsizle\u015ftirirken risk primi y\u00fckseldi. Commerzbank, piyasa tam fiyatlamadan EUR\/GBP\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46745\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}