USD\/CHF, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7850 civar\u0131nda seyrederken be\u015finci g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi. Hareket, ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (ma\u011faza ve \u00e7evrim i\u00e7i sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n toplam\u0131na dair ayl\u0131k veri) Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f beklentiyle uyumlu olurken Mart\u2019taki %1,6\u2019dan yava\u015flad\u0131. Sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,9 y\u00fckseldi; %3,3\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda (Fed) \u00fcst d\u00fczey de\u011fi\u015fiklik sonras\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Stephen Miran istifa etti; b\u00f6ylece Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) riski, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131, hatta yeniden art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini destekledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei\u2019nin \u0130ran gerilimini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in yard\u0131m teklif etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de \u00fcretici ve ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 (firmalar\u0131n maliyetlerini g\u00f6steren, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na \u00f6nc\u00fc olabilen veri) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,0 geriledi. Bu durum, fiyatlar\u0131n genel olarak d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u201cdeflasyon\u201d s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131na ya da \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na (kur m\u00fcdahalesi) kap\u0131 aral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni -46 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 -40\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Piyasada odak, SNB\u2019nin deflasyonu daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kur m\u00fcdahalesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcp g\u00f6rmeyece\u011finde.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF i\u00e7in temel hik\u00e2ye, ABD ile \u0130svi\u00e7re para politikas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi. Nisan\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,9 artmas\u0131, y\u00fcksek faizlere ra\u011fmen t\u00fcketicinin harcamaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu faiz fark\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 yerine ABD Dolar\u0131 tutmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve paritede \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 e\u011filimi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. Nisan ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en ana enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu, Fed\u2019in \u201cfaizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Fed\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7mesiyle piyasa, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha sert bir \u00e7izgiyi (daha h\u0131zl\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131) fiyatl\u0131yor. Ancak son istihdam raporunda sadece 175 bin yeni i\u015f yarat\u0131lmas\u0131, ekonomide so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ederek daha sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,0 d\u00fc\u015fmesi SNB i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir risk. Bu, daha gev\u015fek bir duru\u015f (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na uzak, \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d politika) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu %1,4 ile pozitif kalsa da SNB\u2019nin hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu nedenle SNB\u2019nin Frang\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in kur m\u00fcdahalesini de\u011ferlendirmesi olas\u0131. D\u00f6viz rezervleri (SNB\u2019nin elindeki yabanc\u0131 para varl\u0131klar\u0131) son aylarda g\u00f6rece yatay; bu, SNB\u2019nin \u015fimdilik bekledi\u011fini ancak Frang beklenmedik \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse devreye girebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu durum normalde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na talep getirebilir. Ancak \u015fu a\u015famada dolar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek faizi (getiri avantaj\u0131) sermayeyi kendine \u00e7ekiyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran konusunda destek verebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 da k\u0131sa vadeli endi\u015feyi bir miktar azaltt\u0131. Bu tablo, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fine ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden dolar\u0131n faiz avantaj\u0131na odaklanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF 0,7850\u2019de be\u015finci g\u00fcn y\u00fckseliyor: Perakende sat\u0131\u015flarla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve Fed\u2019de Warsh beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de -%2 \u00dcFE deflasyon sinyali, SNB\u2019yi g\u00fcvercine itiyor. Faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46740\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}