ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00c7in lideri \u015ei Cinping\u2019in (Xi Jinping) \u0130ran \u00fczerinde etkisi olabilecek bir g\u00fcce sahip oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Reuters cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 aktard\u0131. Trump ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran konusunda \u00e7ok daha fazla sab\u0131rl\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Trump per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u015ei\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesi i\u00e7in m\u00fczakerelere yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmay\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamay\u0131 teklif etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den petrol almak istedi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u00c7in gemilerini Teksas, Louisiana ve Alaska\u2019ya g\u00f6ndermeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fclkesini a\u015famal\u0131 olarak a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u00c7in\u2019le yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde bir \u201cvize \u015firketi\u201d meselesinin g\u00fcndeme getirildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumunun \u201cg\u00f6m\u00fclebilece\u011fini\u201d (geri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 zor \u015fekilde depolanabilece\u011fini) ancak kendisinin bunu ele ge\u00e7irmeyi tercih etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumunu ele ge\u00e7irmenin, her \u015feyden \u00e7ok \u201ckamuoyu alg\u0131s\u0131\u201d (halk nezdinde g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc y\u00f6netimi) ile ilgili oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca muhatap oldu\u011fu \u0130ranl\u0131 liderlerin \u201cmakul\u201d oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131 bu gerilimi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Temmuz vadeli Brent ham petrol kontratlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihte teslim edilmek \u00fczere bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 sabitlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) temmuz i\u00e7in dar ama y\u00fcksek bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Nisan sonu ve May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131 2026 boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde seyretti. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. OVX, petrol fiyat\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 (oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcreten bir g\u00f6stergedir. Bu seviye, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin piyasas\u0131) belirgin bir fiyat hareketini sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tedirginlik, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintisi ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00fcnde 3,4 milyon varil seviyesinde istikrarl\u0131 seyrederken, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ABD\u2019nin yenilenen diplomatik bask\u0131s\u0131 ortam\u0131nda 3,2 milyon varile geriledi. Daha fazla t\u0131rmanma, zaten s\u0131k\u0131 (arz\u0131n talebe g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu) k\u00fcresel piyasadan ek varillerin \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel metinde de\u011finilen \u00c7in unsuru kritik bir de\u011fi\u015fken olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol ithalat\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; 2025 sonuna kadar ortalama g\u00fcnde 1,1 milyon varil seviyesinde seyretti ve Tahran\u2019a \u00f6nemli bir ekonomik can suyu sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu durum ABD\u2019nin olas\u0131 stratejilerini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve gerilimin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin zor oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu zeminde, belirli bir y\u00f6n tahmini yerine sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. WTI ya da Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, arz \u015foku halinde fiyatlar\u0131n 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) sa\u011flayabilir. Y\u00fcksek primler (opsiyonun pe\u015fin maliyeti) ise geri \u00e7ekilmelerde nakit teminatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (cash-secured put: \u00f6nceden ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f nakitle, belirli fiyattan alma y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011furan sat\u0131\u015f) satmay\u0131, riski \u00fcstlenebilenler i\u00e7in cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: Trump, \u015ei\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fini ve sabr\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz, \u00c7in petrol talebi ve \u0130ran arz riski Brent\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131 bantta tuttu; OVX 40+; volatilite\/opsiyonlu hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46738"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46738\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}