USD\/JPY per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 158,00\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck **Basit Hareketli Ortalama**y\u0131 (SMA: son 20 g\u00fcn\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n basit ortalamas\u0131) 158,23 seviyesinde a\u015ft\u0131. Parite %0,32\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldi. Bir sonraki diren\u00e7, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn basit ortalamas\u0131) olan 158,75; onun \u00fczerinde 159,00 seviyesi izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Parite son d\u00f6rt i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde **daha y\u00fcksek zirve** yapt\u0131. Bu, y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini destekliyor. **G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi** (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Fiyat 159,00\u2013160,00 band\u0131na girerse, Japon yetkililerin olas\u0131 ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fi seviyelere yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olacak. Bu b\u00f6lge, olas\u0131 **piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi** (yetkililerin kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) riski nedeniyle yak\u0131ndan izlenir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY yeniden 158,00\u2019in alt\u0131na inerse, s\u0131radaki takip seviyesi 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn basit ortalamas\u0131) olan 157,43. Zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcrerse 157,00 ve 6 May\u0131s\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6ng\u00fc dibi 155,03 destek konumunda.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY 161,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine ilerlerken, daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir tablo tekrar olu\u015fuyor. Hareketin temel nedeni ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki **faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n** kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131. Bu haftaki ABD enflasyon verisi, **\u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE**nin (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,2\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme e\u011filimini destekliyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi ise s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, ABD-Japonya **tahvil faiz fark\u0131n\u0131** (iki \u00fclkenin devlet tahvili getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark) 475 **baz puan\u0131n** (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 100 bp = 1 puan) \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 besliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2024\u2019te paritenin 158,00\u2013160,00 band\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na benziyor. O d\u00f6nemde de y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan Japon yetkililer \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7ekte **yen al\u0131m\u0131** yaparak (yenin de\u011ferini desteklemek i\u00e7in piyasada yen sat\u0131n almak) m\u00fcdahalede bulundu. Bu \u00f6rnek, bu seviyelerde piyasan\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bug\u00fcn de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu i\u015faret ediyor. RSI, **a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde** (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steren alan) kalmaya devam ediyor. Ancak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7ok dikkatli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor; tarihsel olarak m\u00fcdahalenin geldi\u011fi b\u00f6lgenin i\u00e7indeyiz. Son bir ayda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelen **s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar** (piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeyi ama\u00e7layan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar) daha s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131; bu da rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) taraf\u0131nda bu ortam, oynakl\u0131k almay\u0131 daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m haline getiriyor. Bir ayl\u0131k USD\/JPY **opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, piyasada ani ve sert hareket endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. **Straddle** (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak) stratejisi, iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Mevcut USD\/JPY uzun pozisyonu olanlar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski **hedge** etmeyi (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in koruyucu pozisyon almak) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. 157,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip **paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda** (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyatta hemen k\u00e2r yazmayan) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (veya USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 resmi ad\u0131m sonras\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar. Bu, 2024 m\u00fcdahalelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok yenlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin tekrarlanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bir t\u00fcr sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 158 \u00fcst\u00fcne at\u0131p 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131; RSI pozitif. 158,75-159,00 diren\u00e7. 159-160 band\u0131nda Japon m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor. Faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi beslerken ima volatilite %12\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131. Hedge ve straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46730\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}