G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re %20,2 artt\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde %18,4 idi.<\/p>\n
\u0130thalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %20,2\u2019ye t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, Kore Wonu (KRW) \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Maliyetlerdeki bu h\u0131zlanma, dolar\/won (USD\/KRW) kurunu yukar\u0131 itiyor; son i\u015flemlerde kurun 1380 seviyesini test etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar wonun zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini hesaba katabilir ve opsiyonlarla (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak ya da KRW sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak, kur y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu maliyet kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Bank of Korea) zor durumda b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bankan\u0131n %2 enflasyon hedefi daha fazla risk alt\u0131nda. Politika faizi (Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) \u015fu anda %3,5 seviyesinde. Piyasa ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131; ama\u00e7, d\u00f6vizi savunmak ve enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamak. Faiz swap piyasalar\u0131 (taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131r) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir duru\u015fa (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) i\u015faret edip etmedi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, artan girdi maliyetleri \u015firketlerin k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015flardan elde edilen k\u00e2r\u0131n oran\u0131) daraltabilir. Son bir ayda %4 gerileyen KOSPI 200 endeksindeki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticiler bu e\u011filime daha a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Endeks i\u00e7in koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (protective put: eldeki pozisyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigortalayan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ya da ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 sanayi hisselerinde benzer korunma i\u015flemleri, olas\u0131 k\u00e2r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kaynakl\u0131 gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ad\u0131m zamanlamas\u0131 ve hamlenin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/KRW paritesinde ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in basit bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, oynakl\u0131kta uzun pozisyon almak olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; kur hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) gibi ara\u00e7lar bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131labilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, kurda y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine odaklan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri: G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %20,2\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Won bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, USD\/KRW 1380\u2019i test ediyor. BoK\u2019a faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131, KOSPI marj riski ve oynakl\u0131kta y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46723","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46723"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46723\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46723"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46723"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46723"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}