USD\/CNH, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama kuru; teknik analizde trendi g\u00f6steren \u00e7izgi) \u00fczerine birka\u00e7 kez \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131ktan sonra yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Bu ortalama, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan bu yana y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir \u201ctavan\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadeli diren\u00e7 (kurun y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 seviye) 6,81\u20136,85 band\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Hareket \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzam\u0131\u015f\u201d (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fazla d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f) olarak tan\u0131mlansa da, net bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanma) sinyali yok. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefler 6,77 ve 2023 dip seviyesi olan 6,69 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u00c7in liderleri aras\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 48 saat i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme bekleniyor. G\u00fcndemde ticaret ve teknoloji var; hassas olmayan \u00fcr\u00fcnler i\u00e7in bir Ticaret Kurulu\u2019ndan (ticari ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenleyen\/kolayla\u015ft\u0131ran ortak mekanizma) s\u00f6z ediliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CNY, 3 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 6,7861\u2019e geriledi. Bu hareket; \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) yuan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine daha fazla izin vermesi, ticaret geriliminin azalabilece\u011fi beklentisi ve \u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6demeler dengesi fazlas\u0131 (\u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz giri\u015finin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan fazla olmas\u0131) ile ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n offshore yuan (CNH; \u00c7in ana karas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki kuru yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Bu, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine tekrar tekrar \u00e7\u0131kamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar taraf\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yuan\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc temel verilerle (ekonomik verilerle) de destekleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019in Nisan 2026 ticaret fazlas\u0131 (ihracat\u0131n ithalattan fazla olmas\u0131) 72,35 milyar dolar ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu, \u00f6demeler dengesinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor ve PBoC\u2019nin yuan\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin vermesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re USD\/CNH\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaln\u0131zca grafikten kaynakl\u0131 de\u011fil; ekonomideki ger\u00e7ek tabloyla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda dolar, ABD faiz beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim nedeniyle zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Nisan 2026 ABD enflasyonu beklentilerin alt\u0131nda %2,9 gelince, piyasa daha \u201cagresif\u201d olmayan bir Fed (daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha fazla faiz art\u0131rmayan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) fiyatl\u0131yor. Para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz ve politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) USD\/CNH\u2019nin daha da gerilemesini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011feri kurdan t\u00fcreyen \u00fcr\u00fcnler; \u00f6r. opsiyon) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, USD\/CNH\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak, 6,77 hedefi ve ard\u0131ndan 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00f6nemli dip olan 6,69 i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. 6,81\u20136,85 band\u0131 ise art\u0131k izlenmesi gereken ana diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\/yuan\u2019da teknik tavan a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yeniden h\u0131zlan\u0131yor: USD\/CNH 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamada tak\u0131ld\u0131; 6,81\u20136,85 diren\u00e7. Hedef 6,77 ve 6,69. Lider g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00c7in fazla ve yumu\u015fayan Fed beklentisi yuan\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46717\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}