TD Securities\u2019te Oscar Munoz liderli\u011findeki ekonomistler, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) tahminlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve 2026\u2019da faiz indirimi beklemediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna gerek\u00e7e olarak \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve tedarik zincirlerindeki (\u00fcretim ve ta\u015f\u0131madaki aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00f6steriyorlar. Bu etkenlerin enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yava\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen 2027\u2019de para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme (faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar ve hedefin \u201cn\u00f6tr faiz\u201d (ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne de yava\u015flatan seviye) olarak %3\u2019e yakla\u015fmak oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Mart 2027\u2019den itibaren toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k (bps: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 75 bps = 0,75 puan) indirim tahmin ediyorlar. Ancak faiz indirimi i\u00e7in gereken ko\u015fullar\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (faizi sabit tutma) konumunda kalabilece\u011fini de ekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u0131l ise i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda (istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) beklenmedik bir zay\u0131flama ya da finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 h\u0131zla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran (krediye eri\u015fimi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran, faizleri yukar\u0131 iten) bir \u015fok olmad\u0131k\u00e7a gev\u015feme beklemiyorlar. Ayr\u0131ca haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren komite toplant\u0131s\u0131) ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmede (Fed\u2019in gelecekte ne yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair verdi\u011fi mesajlarda) de\u011fi\u015fim sinyali verebilece\u011fi bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olabilece\u011fini, Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kevin Warsh\u2019a ge\u00e7mesi senaryosunda da bu mesaj de\u011fi\u015fiminin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini ifade ediyorlar.<\/p>\n
Dot plot\u2019un (Fed yetkililerinin faiz beklentilerini nokta ile g\u00f6steren grafik) 2026 i\u00e7in medyan tahmininde art\u0131k \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r indirim\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin 2027 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmini yazabilece\u011fini de s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar; ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler nedeniyle bir sonraki hamlenin art\u0131\u015ftan \u00e7ok indirim olmas\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurguluyorlar.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n da bu yeni tabloyu h\u0131zla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar. Aral\u0131k 2026 SOFR vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesinin (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizi; vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme: gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan kontrat) getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; b\u00f6ylece birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce fiyatlanan 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim beklentisi silinmi\u015f oldu. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosunun art\u0131k ana \u00e7er\u00e7eve haline geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Ana i\u015flem stratejisi olarak SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) satmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yorlar; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed\u2019in duru\u015funun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde sabitlendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. Ancak MOVE Endeksi (tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 115\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u015fahin s\u00fcrprize kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla 2026 sonu veya 2027 ba\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201c\u00e7ok uzak kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131\u201d (far out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan \u00e7ok uzakta olan, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama s\u0131\u00e7ramada de\u011fer kazanan) call opsiyonlar\u0131 ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %15 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek bir risk oldu\u011funu ekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri ve opsiyonlar) taraf\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn daha savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini, \u00f6zellikle faize duyarl\u0131 Nasdaq 100 i\u00e7in bunu vurguluyorlar. Endeksin son enflasyon verisinden bu yana %4 geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini, bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. Bu nedenle koruyucu \u201cput\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) art\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve QQQ ETF \u00fczerinde (Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fc izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak\u201d call spread (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki call ile kurulan, yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiri hedefleyen) sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131; yatay veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli fiyat hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyorlar.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fakt\u00f6r olmaya devam etti\u011fini, bunun WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tuttu\u011funu belirtiyorlar. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji maliyetinin enflasyon beklentilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, K\u00fcresel Tedarik Zinciri Bask\u0131 Endeksi\u2019nin (tedarik zincirindeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) de ge\u00e7en ay bir y\u0131l sonra ilk kez y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ekliyorlar. Bu nedenle enerji hisseleri veya petrol ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonu ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 bir korunma arac\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok tahmin: TD Securities, \u0130ran gerilimiyle kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve 95$+ petrol nedeniyle Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019da indirime gitmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2027\u2019de 75 bp gev\u015feme, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d fiyatlan\u0131yor. Nasdaq savunmac\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46712\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}