Rabobank stratejisti Michael Every, \u00c7in\u2019i g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz jeopoliti\u011fi (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesi) ve k\u00fcresel finans\u0131n kilit oyuncusu olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor. Yaz\u0131, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Pekin ziyaretini, ABD\u2013\u00c7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden \u00e7\u0131kabilecek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Uzla\u015fma\u201dn\u0131n (iki \u00fclkenin kapsaml\u0131 bir anla\u015fmayla \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131klarda uzun vadeli pazarl\u0131k yapmas\u0131) m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Trump, Xi ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye \u201cmilyarder CEO\u2019lardan olu\u015fan bir heyet\u201d e\u015fli\u011finde gitti ve Air Force One\u2019da (ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131) Xi\u2019den \u00c7in\u2019i \u201ca\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131\u201d isteyece\u011fini; b\u00f6ylece \u201cbu parlak insanlar\u0131n maharetlerini g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini\u201d yazd\u0131. Yaz\u0131, ABD s\u00f6ylemini \u201cNixon\u2013Mao 2.0\u201d (1970\u2019lerdeki ABD-\u00c7in yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131na benzetme) olarak da k\u0131yasl\u0131yor; ancak bir\u00e7ok tepkinin Trump\u2019a bak\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
S\u0131ralanan olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar aras\u0131nda jeopoliti\u011fi ve jeo-ekonomiyi (siyasetin ticaret, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve tedarik zincirleri \u00fczerindeki etkisi) yeniden \u015fekillendirecek bir \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Uzla\u015fma\u201d veya g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri, teknoloji ve Tayvan ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131nda daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir anla\u015fma bulunuyor. Ayr\u0131ca Hollanda\u2019n\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ip (yar\u0131 iletken) ekipman firmas\u0131 ASML\u2019nin \u00c7in pazar\u0131na sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 daha da k\u0131s\u0131tlama \u00f6nerisine itiraz etti\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran taraf\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in Tahran \u00fczerindeki etkisini (bask\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc) kullanabilece\u011fi iddialar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor; The New York Times ise \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin \u0130ran\u2019a silah sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaz\u0131yor. Daha geni\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evede Euroclear\u2019\u0131n (menkul k\u0131ymet saklama ve takas altyap\u0131s\u0131; i\u015flemlerin sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan sistem) \u00c7in\u2019in \u201conshore\u201d tahvillerini (\u00c7in ana karas\u0131ndaki yerel piyasa tahvilleri) de\u011ferlendirmesi ve Pekin\u2019in yuan\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma \u00e7abalar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Herkes, yakla\u015fan ABD\u2013\u00c7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ne kadar kritik oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; sonu\u00e7lar \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Uzla\u015fma\u201ddan \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck T\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u201da (gerilimin sert y\u00fckselmesi) kadar uzanabilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX; S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 18 civar\u0131nda ve y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek seviyede. Bu nedenle piyasada iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyon almak mant\u0131kl\u0131. Opsiyon (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ile b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131l\u0131r; belirsizlik bu kadar y\u00fcksekken piyasada sadece \u201cuzun\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) ya da \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) kalmak riskli.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in yuan hamlesi, d\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik. Yuan\u0131n k\u00fcresel SWIFT \u00f6demelerindeki pay\u0131 (bankalar aras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme a\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan \u00f6demeler) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce %5,5\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l %4,5\u2019in biraz \u00fczerindeydi. Herhangi bir anla\u015fmaya yuan\u0131n tepkisi sert olabilir. Son d\u00f6nemde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan banttan kopu\u015fu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in offshore yuan (CNH; \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) \u00fczerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d almak (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; oynakl\u0131ktan kazanmay\u0131 hedefler) USD\/CNH paritesinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025 boyunca tarife a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa savrulmalar\u0131 (ani y\u00fckseli\u015f-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hisse senetlerinde temkin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler endeksleri do\u011frudan etkileyece\u011fi i\u00e7in S&P 500 ve Hong Kong Hang Seng \u00fczerinde t\u00fcrevler (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) korunma (hedge; riski azaltma) veya spek\u00fclasyon (fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 denemesi) i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli ara\u00e7lar. Toplant\u0131 tarihleri yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a bu endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesi beklenir.<\/p>\n
Teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle yar\u0131 iletkenler, ana m\u00fccadele alan\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Hollanda\u2019n\u0131n ASML sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 konusunda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, teknoloji ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir sepet hisseyi takip eder) sert hareketler olas\u0131. Burada opsiyonlarla ikili bir senaryoya (sonucun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde iki u\u00e7tan birine gitmesi) pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131yor: uzla\u015f\u0131 gelirse teknoloji y\u00fckselir, k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar artarsa sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: Trump-Xi zirvesi \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Uzla\u015fma\u201d m\u0131 \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck T\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u201d m\u0131 getirecek? Tarifeler, teknoloji, Tayvan ve yuan hamlesi izleniyor; VIX y\u00fckselirken opsiyonlarla sert hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131k \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46710\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}