BoE Para Politikas\u0131 Komitesi (MPC) \u00fcyesi Huw Pill, ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerinin (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve di\u011fer fiyatlara \u201cdalga dalga\u201d yans\u0131mas\u0131) 2022\u2019deki kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu etkilerin davran\u0131\u015fsal oldu\u011funu (\u015firket ve hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\/\u00fccret belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131) ve BoE\u2019nin (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) bundan sonra ne yapaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u015fekillendi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Pill, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (istihdam\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131) ikinci tur etkileri 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla muhtemelen daha zay\u0131f yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2008 veya 2011\u2019deki petrol fiyat \u015foklar\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde oldu\u011fu kadar \u201cgev\u015fek\u201d (i\u015f arayanlar\u0131n \u00e7ok, i\u015fverenlerin \u00fccret pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu durum) olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Son GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verilerinin bir miktar dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtti. Enflasyon dinamiklerinin \u201c\u00e7apa kaybetmesi\u201d (enflasyon beklentilerinin kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, hedefe ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131) riskine kar\u015f\u0131 uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pill, daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n (krediye eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131) BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmama karar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. H\u0131zl\u0131 ama s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli art\u0131\u015f) avantajl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Pill, piyasa bask\u0131s\u0131 BoE\u2019yi harekete zorlayana kadar beklemenin Banka i\u00e7in daha zor olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Herhangi bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ge\u00e7ici mi kal\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 ya da faizin bir \u201cplato\u201dya (belirli bir seviyede uzun s\u00fcre sabit kalma) oturup oturmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda konu\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Mali ko\u015fullar\u0131n (kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi, bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131) ve k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmelerin uzun vadeli piyasa faizlerini (uzun vadeli tahvil getirileri) etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu unsurlar\u0131n enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de etkiledi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131, enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in faizlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 ama s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun, faizin er ya da ge\u00e7 art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik net bir sinyal olarak okunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa zorlamadan \u00f6nce ad\u0131m atmak, daha az maliyetli yol olarak sunuluyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son verilerle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Nisan 2026\u2019da \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu %3,1 ile %2 hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Banka, 2022 krizinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi enflasyon beklentilerinin \u00e7apa kaybetmesine izin veremez. Bu da \u00f6nleyici bir faiz hamlesini (risk b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden ad\u0131m atma) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Banka, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu kabul ediyor. ONS (Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi) verilerine g\u00f6re 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde i\u015fsizlik %4,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ve ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerinin 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da \u201cagresif\u201d (sert) de\u011fil \u201cm\u00fctevaz\u0131\u201d (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2022 ve 2023 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, enflasyonun nihayetinde %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme verilen bir yan\u0131tt\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tablo ise daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan: 2026 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH %0,2 ile zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. BoE ge\u00e7mi\u015fin tekrar\u0131n\u0131 istemiyor; ancak daha zay\u0131f ekonomi hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Pozisyon alma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, SONIA e\u011frisinin (sterlin gecelik faizine dayal\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentileri e\u011frisi) k\u0131sa ucunun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bir sonraki MPC toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131\u015f\u0131n tamamen fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeliyiz. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemli y\u00fckseli\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon (belirli vadede belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) stratejileri daha avantajl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda bu daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) Sterlin\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verebilir. Euro ve Dolar\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli GBP al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli fiyattan Sterlin alma hakk\u0131) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u201cS\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d ad\u0131m vurgusu, sert bir ralli olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu nedenle getirisi ve riski ba\u015ftan belli (hedefi tan\u0131ml\u0131) stratejiler daha mant\u0131kl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Banka, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici mi olaca\u011f\u0131 yoksa yeni bir plato ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda net konu\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bu belirsizlik nedeniyle \u00fccret ve fiyat verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon sinyali daha fazla art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda ek zay\u0131flama bunun \u201ctek seferlik\u201d (bir kez yap\u0131l\u0131p durdurulan) bir ad\u0131m olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE\u2019den faiz i\u00e7in kritik sinyal: Huw Pill, ikinci tur enflasyonun 2022 kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Hedef \u00fcst\u00fc enflasyon, h\u0131zl\u0131 ama s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46709","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46709"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46709\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46709"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46709"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46709"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}