USD\/CAD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri ve ABD\u2019den gelen yeni verileri de\u011ferlendirirken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep artt\u0131. Parite %0,12 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 1,3723 civar\u0131nda, son bir ay\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki arz kesintilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve USD\/CAD\u2019deki ek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda b\u00f6lgedeki gerilim, bunun d\u00f6vizler ve emtialar (ham madde) \u00fczerindeki etkisi vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pekin\u2019de ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Xi Jinping aras\u0131nda iki g\u00fcn s\u00fcren zirvede ticaret, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ele al\u0131nd\u0131. Trump, Xi\u2019nin \u0130ran konusunda yard\u0131m teklif etti\u011fini ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fmazl\u0131k nedeniyle t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f durumda. K\u0131sa vadede bir ilerleme sinyali verilmedi.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerinde, Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 artt\u0131. Bu, marttaki %1,6\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda olsa da beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar Kontrol Grubu (GSYH hesaplamalar\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan, daha oynak kalemlerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakan \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6sterge) %0,5 y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki art\u0131\u015f %0,8\u2019di.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan Fed faiz ad\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karan g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %33\u2019ten %42\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,78 civar\u0131nda, iki haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 ile y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi Kanada Dolar\u0131 aras\u0131nda klasik bir \u00e7eki\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u201c\u015eahin\u201d Fed (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filiminde, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) ile Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz riski, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dalgal\u0131 bir seyre yol a\u00e7abilir. Net bir tetikleyici (piyasay\u0131 belirgin bir y\u00f6ne itecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haber\/veri) olmadan USD\/CAD\u2019de bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi kovalamak riskli.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim belirleyici: Piyasa art\u0131k aral\u0131\u011fa kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini %42 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Nisan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 marttaki s\u0131\u00e7ramaya g\u00f6re yava\u015flasa da son T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksi) verilerinde %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerindeki \u0131srarl\u0131 enflasyon, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131na gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. Bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan petrol piyasas\u0131, USD\/CAD i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r. \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle WTI (Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi) ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken, Kanada Dolar\u0131 sa\u011flam bir destek buluyor. Tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek enerji fiyat\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cloonie\u201d (Kanada Dolar\u0131) \u00e7o\u011fu zaman g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na kar\u015f\u0131 bile g\u00f6rece daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikte opsiyon (belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) stratejileri daha dengeli bir risk-getiri sunabilir. USD\/CAD\u2019de \u201ccall spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; kazan\u00e7 ve zarar s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r) almak, paritenin 1,3800\u2019e y\u00f6nelmesinden faydalan\u0131rken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rar ve parite d\u00fc\u015ferse azami zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu, oynak ortamda s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z risk almadan y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi ta\u015f\u0131maya daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019deki son b\u00fcy\u00fck Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, petrol y\u00fcksek kalsa bile ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz avantaj\u0131 (faizlerin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle dolar varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelim) USD\/CAD\u2019i yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f ve parite 1,3800\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da piyasa Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na tamamen ikna olursa, \u201cgreenback\u201din (ABD Dolar\u0131) momentumunun petrolden gelen Kanada Dolar\u0131 deste\u011fini a\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed ileti\u015fimini (a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, konu\u015fmalar, tutanaklar) tondaki de\u011fi\u015fim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlemeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde y\u00fckseli\u015fte: Dolar, jeopolitik riskler ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flarla g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Fed\u2019in aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %42\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u00fcksek petrol Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyip y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46708\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}