Cisco Systems (CSCO), mali \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. \u015eirket, yapay zek\u00e2 i\u00e7in dev veri merkezleri kuran \u201chiper \u00f6l\u00e7ekli\u201d (hyperscaler: \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bulut \u015firketleri) m\u00fc\u015fterilerden talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Cisco, 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda (FY \u201926) bu m\u00fc\u015fterilerden yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131 sipari\u015flerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Cisco, 4. \u00e7eyrek gelir tahminini 16,8 milyar dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu seviye piyasa beklentisinin (konsens\u00fcs: analistlerin ortak tahmini) 1 milyar dolar \u00fczerinde. \u015eirket ayr\u0131ca d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f hisse ba\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2r\u0131 (adjusted EPS: tek seferlik kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r) 1,17 dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu da beklentinin 10 sent \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
1999\u2019da Cisco %126\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckselirken, NASDAQ 100 endeksi %102 artt\u0131. Mart 2000\u2019den sonra Cisco sonraki 18 ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %90 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Mart 2000\u2019deki 82 dolarl\u0131k zirvesinin (ayl\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015fta) \u00fczerine ancak ge\u00e7en ay \u00e7\u0131kabildi.<\/p>\n
Intel (INTC) de DotCom d\u00f6neminin (internet \u015firketleri balonu) hisselerinden biriydi ve son bir y\u0131lda %438 y\u00fckseldi. Haberde bu hareket, 2025\u2019te 10 milyar dolarl\u0131k federal destek ve veri merkezlerinde i\u015flem g\u00fcc\u00fc (compute: sunucular\u0131n hesaplama kapasitesi) talebine ba\u011flan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Cisco son bir y\u0131lda %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. 2027 i\u00e7in konsens\u00fcs d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f EPS 4,68 dolar; bu da yakla\u015f\u0131k 25x \u00e7arpana (multiple: fiyat\/k\u00e2r gibi de\u011ferleme oran\u0131) i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Belirtilen teknik seviyeler (grafikten t\u00fcretilen \u00f6nemli fiyat noktalar\u0131) aras\u0131nda 129,08 dolar (%361,8), 138,59 dolar (%423,6) ve 113,70 dolar civar\u0131nda destek (support: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girebilece\u011fi seviye) bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Cisco\u2019nun yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiyle sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonras\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 devam hareketi i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleyen) opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. 129 veya 138 dolar gibi teknik hedeflere yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve \u00f6nceden belirli riskle y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesine kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, b\u00f6yle b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck ralli sonras\u0131 hisseyi kovalamaya g\u00f6re daha az sermaye ba\u011flayan (sermaye verimli) bir yoldur.<\/p>\n
Genel piyasa havas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu ivmeyi desteklerken temkin gerektiriyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131k\/korku g\u00f6stergesi) 13 civar\u0131nda tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti; bu, korkunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Hisse senedi put\/call oran\u0131 (put\/call: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ile al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n oran\u0131) 0,70\u2019in alt\u0131nda; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc yo\u011fun spek\u00fclasyonu g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u201ckorku\u201d ve y\u00fcksek y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u015ftah\u0131 kombinasyonu, 1999 sonundaki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ncesi ko\u015fullar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Cisco\u2019nun Mart 2000 zirvesinden sonra %90\u2019l\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, riskleri net bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor. Bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131, 113,70 dolar ana destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) alarak hedge edilebilir (hedge: ters y\u00f6nde pozisyonla risk azaltma). Bu strateji, yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 ralli zay\u0131flarsa ve sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme (retracement: y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verme) ya\u015fan\u0131rsa \u201csigorta\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Cisco opsiyonlar\u0131nda bu fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 sonras\u0131 z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fcksek olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ad\u0131na dikey spread\u2019ler (vertical spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte alma-satma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin bo\u011fa call spread\u2019i (bull call spread: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satma), y\u00fckseli\u015f hedeflerken maksimum zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve zaman a\u015f\u0131m\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 (volatility\/time decay: s\u00fcre azald\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyonun erimesi) azalt\u0131r. Bu da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimserlikten faydalan\u0131rken gereksiz risk almadan daha dengeli bir yap\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cisco, AI veri merkezi talebiyle bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 %15 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; FY26\u2019da hyperscaler sipari\u015fleri 9 milyar $ hedefleniyor. Ancak VIX 13, put\/call d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck: 1999\u2019u an\u0131msat\u0131yor; opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f+hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46704\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}