ABD, 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu (Treasury bill; k\u0131sa vadeli devlet bor\u00e7lanma senedi) ihalesinde faizin (getirinin) %3,605 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki 4 haftal\u0131k bono ihalesinde getiri %3,61 seviyesindeydi; bu oran son sonuca g\u00f6re 0,005 puan daha y\u00fcksekti.<\/p>\n
4 haftal\u0131k getiri oran\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerileme, piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin (yak\u0131n vadede ge\u00e7erli politika faizi seviyesinin) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir sonraki toplant\u0131da para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite duru\u015funu) sabit tutma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00f6ylece 2025\u2019te \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan faiz de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri d\u00f6neminin \u015fimdilik geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son verilerin ekonomide yava\u015flama olsa da dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermesiyle destekleniyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin nisan ay\u0131 istihdam verisinde bordrolu istihdam (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam; \u015firketlerin maa\u015f bordrolar\u0131nda yer alan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131) 180 bin artarken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) iki \u00e7eyrektir %2,7 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in piyasay\u0131 \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimli) veya \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirme e\u011filimli) bir s\u00fcrprizle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faiz e\u011frisinin (vadeye g\u00f6re faizlerin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131) k\u0131sa vade k\u0131sm\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan (fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SOFR futures; gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizine dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) strangle satmak (farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla prim toplama stratejisi) prim geliri elde etmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili olabilir; mevcut banttan belirgin bir kopu\u015f beklenmiyor. Bu, yaz aylar\u0131nda politika istikrar\u0131 beklentisinin s\u00fcrece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca bu ortam\u0131n, getiri e\u011frisinde dikle\u015fme (yield curve steepening; uzun vadeli faizlerin k\u0131sa vadeli faizlere g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi ve aradaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) i\u015flemini destekledi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen Fed\u2019in faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (cutting cycle; ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k faiz indirimleri d\u00f6nemi) ard\u0131ndan, b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri kademeli toparland\u0131k\u00e7a 2 y\u0131l ile 10 y\u0131l ABD tahvili getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark (spread; getiri fark\u0131) geni\u015fleme e\u011filiminde oluyor. Vadeli i\u015flemlerle daha dik bir e\u011friye pozisyon almak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in temel stratejiler aras\u0131nda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz yok: ABD 4 haftal\u0131k T-bill getirisi %3,605\u2019e indi (\u00f6nceki %3,61). Piyasa k\u0131sa vadede Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131kta SOFR strangle ve e\u011fri dikle\u015fmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46702\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}