UOB, nisan ay\u0131nda hem T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) hem de \u00dcFE\u2019nin (\u00fcretici fiyat endeksi) yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019de enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca enerjiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) g\u00f6stergelerinin, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik hedefinin daha da \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, 2026 i\u00e7in ortalama man\u015fet T\u00dcFE enflasyonu tahminini y\u00fczde 3,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti (\u00f6nceki: y\u00fczde 3,3). 2026 i\u00e7in ortalama \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE enflasyonu tahminini de yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,0 olarak revize etti (\u00f6nceki: y\u00fczde 2,8).<\/p>\n
UOB, \u201cbaz etkisi\u201d (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n fiyat seviyesinin bu y\u0131lki y\u0131ll\u0131k oranlar\u0131 teknik olarak yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmesi) normalle\u015ftik\u00e7e 2027\u2019de hem man\u015fet hem \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye do\u011fru gerilemesini bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde daha uzun s\u00fcre kalma riskinin, \u00f6nceki tahminlere g\u00f6re artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
2026 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler ve petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 100 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131 seyretmesiyle ili\u015fkilendiriyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 100 dolar\/varil seviyesinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na iner\u00adse, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonun zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes bozulur ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma t\u0131rman\u0131rsa petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Bu senaryoda, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u00fczde 5\u2019e yakla\u015fabilece\u011fini ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n
Banka ayr\u0131ca nisan ay\u0131ndaki \u00dcFE s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n ve \u00dcFE ile T\u00dcFE aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n, \u00fcretici maliyetlerinin ileride t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na daha fazla yans\u0131mas\u0131na (maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n raf fiyatlar\u0131na \u201caktar\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d) i\u015faret edebilece\u011fini ekliyor. Makalede, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi notu yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
UOB uyar\u0131yor: ABD\u2019de enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 enerjiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayabilir. 2026 T\u00dcFE tahmini %3,7\u2019ye, \u00e7ekirdek %3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Petrol 100$ \u00fcst\u00fc senaryosunda 2026 sonuna %5 man\u015fet riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46699\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}