Kansas City Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jeffrey Schmid, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun ekonomi i\u00e7in en acil risk oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Schmid, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 fazla y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtti. <\/p>\n
Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc konferans\u0131nda konu\u015fan Schmid, ABD ekonomisinin ge\u00e7mi\u015fe k\u0131yasla k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131na (sava\u015f, ambargo, \u00fcretim kesintisi gibi nedenlerle petrolde ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) daha az hassas oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Schmid, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n harcama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin maliyetlerini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. <\/p>\n
Schmid, ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ve temel g\u00f6stergelerin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, istihdam, finansal ko\u015fullar) sa\u011flam kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (i\u015f bulma-i\u015fe alma dengesi) da etkin \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
Schmid, ekonomik faaliyetin en b\u00fcy\u00fck itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti. Varl\u0131k de\u011ferlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n (konut ve hisse senedi gibi) bir\u00e7ok haneyi daha fazla harcamaya y\u00f6neltti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
Schmid, \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini; \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131 kurulumlar\u0131n\u0131n (daha fazla veri merkezi, \u00e7ip, yaz\u0131l\u0131m ve kapasite yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki ko\u015fullar\u0131n da temelde sa\u011flam oldu\u011funu s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. <\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in mesaj\u0131, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir numaral\u0131 sorun oldu\u011fu ve m\u00fccadelenin bitmedi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerin ortalama fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi de bunu do\u011frulad\u0131: Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %3,4 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Bu da yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimi beklenmemesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Son y\u0131llarda piyasay\u0131 belirleyen \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201d d\u00f6neminin s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f (faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi), faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemlerinin (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/ faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin) g\u00fcndemde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. CME FedWatch verisinde (vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karan g\u00f6sterge) belirgin de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019ya kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda getiri e\u011frisinin (tahvil faizlerinin vadeye g\u00f6re s\u0131ralanmas\u0131) yatay kalmas\u0131 veya az da olsa y\u00fckselmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde konumlanmay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. SOFR opsiyonlar\u0131 (ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faiz g\u00f6stergesi olan SOFR\u2019a dayal\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131labiliyor. <\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez; bu durum enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran ek bir unsur. OPEC+ arz\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131 (\u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan politika) nedeniyle WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in do\u011frudan olumsuz bir unsur. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019leri (bir endeksi\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarla olas\u0131 yeni fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunabilir ya da talepte zay\u0131flama i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse geri \u00e7ekilmeye oynayabilir. <\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki, \u00f6zellikle yapay zek\u00e2 alan\u0131ndaki, a\u00e7\u0131klanan g\u00fc\u00e7 hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir sinyal veriyor. Bu, teknoloji ve di\u011fer y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinin iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fi; faizden daha fazla etkilenen sekt\u00f6rlerin (\u00f6r. elektrik-su gibi kamu hizmetleri ve gayrimenkul) geride kalabilece\u011fi bir piyasaya i\u015faret ediyor. Endeks opsiyonlar\u0131yla (genel piyasa endeksleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ayr\u0131\u015fmaya oynanabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Nasdaq 100\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi) al\u0131rken Russell 2000\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi) almak gibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019den \u015fahin sinyal: Schmid\u2019e g\u00f6re kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk. T\u00dcFE %3,4; faiz indirimi uzak. Petrol 90$+ bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. T\u00fcketim, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; getiri e\u011frisi yatay-yukar\u0131. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46695","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46695"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46695\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46695"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46695"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46695"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}