USD\/BRL, ge\u00e7en ay k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yatay seyrin (konsolidasyon: fiyat\u0131n dar bantta gidip gelmesi) alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na indikten sonra daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini (ana y\u00f6nl\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Parite 4,88 civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir dip g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra sert toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki dip ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (50-DMA: son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; trendin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc takip etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) temel al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 5,08-5,11 band\u0131nda bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi (sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. USD\/BRL 5,08-5,11 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamazsa, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/BRL 4,88 civar\u0131ndaki dipten toparland\u0131 ancak \u015fimdi kritik bir e\u015fikte. 5,08-5,11 aras\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 alan\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz; bu seviye \u015eubat dibi ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u00f6nemli bir bariyer. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu tavan\u0131n (ge\u00e7ilmesi zor diren\u00e7) a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, ana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 bask\u0131n oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n cazip faiz fark\u0131yla (faiz makas\u0131: iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) destekleniyor. Selic faizi \u015fu anda %10,50 ile ABD faizlerinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin IPCA-15 enflasyonu (erken d\u00f6nem enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %0,21 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geldi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131na y\u00fcksek faizi daha uzun s\u00fcre koruma gerek\u00e7esi veriyor. Bu durum, ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemini (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7) cazip tutarak reali destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutma duru\u015fu (politika faizi: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ana faiz oran\u0131) dolara temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve paritede hassas bir denge olu\u015fturuyor. 2025 sonlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleriyle dalgalanman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve paritenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 5,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu \u00f6rnek, risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131) ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fip yerel dinamikleri g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri kur\/fiyat gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu tablo, 5,11 seviyesinden olas\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe (diren\u00e7ten reddedilme: fiyat\u0131n diren\u00e7ten d\u00f6nmesi) pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor. 5,00 veya 4,95 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun \u00f6nceden belirlenen i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) USD\/BRL sat\u0131m (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, son dip b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle de\u011ferlendirme yolu olabilir. Burada kritik nokta, paritenin 5,11 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p yapamayaca\u011f\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin (bearish: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 5,11 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout: seviyenin net \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6sterebilir. Bu senaryoda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirme yapmas\u0131 gerekir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00f6yle bir hareket h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/BRL 4,88\u2019den sert toparland\u0131; \u015fimdi g\u00f6zler 5,08-5,11 direncinde. A\u015f\u0131lamazsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi s\u00fcrebilir. Selic-ABD faiz makas\u0131 reali destekliyor; 5,11 \u00fczeri kapan\u0131\u015f tabloyu tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46691\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}