Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), y\u0131llar s\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan (daha y\u00fcksek zirveler ve daha y\u00fcksek diplerle) uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini koruyan bir **Elliott Dalga** (fiyat hareketini \u201cdalgalar\u201d halinde sayarak trend ve d\u00fczeltmeleri okuma y\u00f6ntemi) yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Be\u015f dalgal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketi **((3)) dalgas\u0131nda** tamamland\u0131; ard\u0131ndan **((4)) dalgas\u0131** olarak etiketlenen bir **d\u00fczeltme** (ana trende kar\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilme) ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
**((4)) dalgas\u0131**, bitmi\u015f olmaktan ziyade bir **A-B-C d\u00fczeltmesi** (\u00fc\u00e7 par\u00e7al\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme) olarak **geli\u015fiyor**. **(B) dalgas\u0131** i\u00e7inde fiyat hareketi, A-B-C-D-E ile i\u015faretlenen **daralan \u00fc\u00e7gen** (fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderek s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n birbirinin i\u00e7ine ge\u00e7ti\u011fi formasyon) olu\u015fturuyor; bu da **dalga \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmeleri** (sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n net ayr\u0131\u015fmamas\u0131) ve **azalan oynakl\u0131k** (fiyat\u0131n daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
(B) dalgas\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7gen tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yap\u0131 **((4)) i\u00e7indeki (C) dalgas\u0131nda** bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Grafik yans\u0131tmas\u0131, **((4)) dalgas\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 biti\u015fi 133,36 civar\u0131nda** g\u00f6steriyor; buras\u0131 **destek b\u00f6lgesi** (al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girme e\u011filiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat alan\u0131) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer **((4)) dalgas\u0131 133,36 civar\u0131nda** tamamlan\u0131rsa, s\u0131radaki hareketin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc **((5)) dalgas\u0131** olmas\u0131 beklenir. Bu senaryo, \u00f6nceki **((3)) zirvesinin** \u00fczerine ta\u015fan **yeni zirveleri** hedefler.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede, son sal\u0131n\u0131mlar olu\u015furken izlenecek ana seviyeler **\u00fc\u00e7genin \u00fcst ve alt s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131d\u0131r**. Bu kurguda kritik **ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesi** (bu seviyenin alt\u0131\/\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse senaryonun bozulmas\u0131) **58,84**; fiyat bunun \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131 ge\u00e7erli kabul edilir.<\/p>\n
ICE\u2019de **daralan oynakl\u0131k** d\u00f6nemi izleniyor; bu, tespit edilen \u00fc\u00e7gen formasyonuyla uyumlu. Bu durum, yak\u0131n vadede fiyat\u0131n **s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan bantta** kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle **short strangle** (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu **satarak** prim geliri hedefleyen, fiyat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket yapmamas\u0131na oynayan strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle **opsiyon primi satman\u0131n** avantajl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, NYSE\u2019de 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacimleri yatay seyretti; bu, 2025 sonundaki daha hareketli piyasalara g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma evresi sona yakla\u015f\u0131rken, **133 deste\u011fine do\u011fru son bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iti\u015f** (son geri \u00e7ekilme) bekleniyor. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n buna haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda vadesi dolacak **put** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi, beklenen bu geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanma amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu olas\u0131 hareket, **Fed\u2019in n\u00f6tr duru\u015funun** (faiz politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda belirgin bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ya da gev\u015feme sinyali vermeyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) piyasada k\u0131sa vadeli teredd\u00fct yaratmas\u0131yla da uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
**133 dolar b\u00f6lgesi**, d\u00fczeltmenin tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131 yer olma ihtimali nedeniyle \u00f6nemli bir **al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131** olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fiyat bu alana yakla\u015f\u0131rken deste\u011fin \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler izlenerek, stratejinin **d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften y\u00fckseli\u015fe** \u00e7evrilmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu noktada **call** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak veya **put credit spread** (daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put alarak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle prim geliri hedefleyen strateji) kurmak, bir sonraki ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine e\u015flik etmek i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan se\u00e7enekler olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ICE\u2019de kritik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma: Elliott ((4)) d\u00fczeltmesi \u00fc\u00e7gende s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00fc\u00e7gen bitince 133,36 deste\u011fine son sarkma ve ard\u0131ndan ((5)) ile yeni zirveler g\u00fcndemde. 58,84 alt\u0131 senaryoyu bozar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46684\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}