NOK\/SEK y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 y\u00fckseldi. Bunun nedeni, Norve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Norges Bank) **enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d** (faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya veya art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131, \u0130sve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Riksbank) ise politikay\u0131 **de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden** b\u0131rakmas\u0131 oldu. Bu ad\u0131m, Norve\u00e7\u2019te **inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon** (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta **faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131** ile geldi; ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Riksbank faizi sabit tuttu.<\/p>\n
Norve\u00e7\u2019in **enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131** olmas\u0131 da Norve\u00e7 kronunu destekleyen bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019te ise **maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n** (devletin harcama ve vergi kararlar\u0131) t\u00fcketimi desteklemesi ve bunun da **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Rabobank\u2019\u0131n D\u00f6viz Stratejisi ekibi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda NOK\/SEK\u2019te ek y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bankan\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, **geri \u00e7ekilmelerde** (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde) NOK\/SEK almak; \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k hedef 1,02.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 14 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla benzer ancak daha farkl\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yine kronu destekliyor. \u0130sve\u00e7 Riksbank ge\u00e7en hafta, enflasyonda ilerleme gerek\u00e7esiyle **politika faizini** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ana faiz oran\u0131) %3,75\u2019e indirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Norges Bank, politika faizini %4,50\u2019de **s\u0131k\u0131** tutuyor ve bu seviyede kal\u0131\u015f s\u00fcresinin daha \u00f6nce beklenenden uzun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler de bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 destekliyor. \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in son enflasyon verisi %2,3\u2019e geriledi; bu seviye Riksbank\u2019a **gev\u015femeye** (faiz indirimine) ba\u015flama alan\u0131 verdi. Norve\u00e7\u2019te ise **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** %4,4 ile y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 **\u015fahin** duru\u015fu korumaya zorluyor.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda NOK\/SEK\u2019te **uzun pozisyon** (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7eyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. NOK\/SEK \u00fczerinde vadesi 2-3 ay olan **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) alman\u0131n, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe daha kontroll\u00fc \u015fekilde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in uygun bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken **azami zarar\u0131** (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 maliyet) netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
Norve\u00e7\u2019in enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 kimli\u011fi de destekleyici zemin sunuyor; **Brent petrol** fiyat\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay. Yenilenen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte 1,0300 seviyesine do\u011fru **geri \u00e7ekilmeler** yeni al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak izleniyor. G\u00fcncellenen beklenti, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda 1,0600 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru hareket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NOK\/SEK y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %11 ralli yapt\u0131: Norges Bank \u015fahin, Riksbank gev\u015fiyor. Norve\u00e7\u2019te \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %4,4, enerji ihracat\u0131 destek. Geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m, 2-3 ay call opsiyonu; hedef 1,0600.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46683\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}