GBP, Operasyon Epic Fury\u2019nin ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan mart ay\u0131nda %1,9 geriledi. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde EUR %2,2, CHF ise %3,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Nisan ay\u0131nda GBP %2,9 y\u00fckselerek CHF\u2019nin (%2,3) ve EUR\u2019nun (%1,5) \u00fczerinde performans g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda GBP %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ferken EUR %0,2, CHF %0,1 geriledi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran geriliminden \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi risklere ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fime kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
GBP g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rman\u0131p t\u0131rmanmamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. Bunun nedeni, geli\u015fmelerin ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 (USD) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip zay\u0131flatabilmesi ve bunun da sterlin gibi para birimlerini etkilemesi. \u0130ngiltere siyaseti ise \u00f6zellikle b\u00fct\u00e7e dengeleri (kamu harcamalar\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanma) konusunda endi\u015feler h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda GBP \u00fczerinde belirleyici oluyor. Liz Truss d\u00f6nemindeki 2022 \u201cmini b\u00fct\u00e7e\u201d s\u00fcreci buna \u00f6rnek; piyasa, mali disiplinin bozulaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesiyle sterlini sert satm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mart ve nisan aylar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyir, may\u0131s ortas\u0131na do\u011fru yerini siyasi risklere b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu ay GBP, hem euro hem de \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131; GBP\/USD kuru (sterlin\/dolar paritesi) iki haftada 1,28 zirvesinden 1,25\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, piyasan\u0131n art\u0131k Operasyon Epic Fury\u2019nin etkilerinden \u00e7ok Londra\u2019daki Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k (10 Downing Street) geli\u015fmelerine odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Siyasi belirsizlik, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n BoE\u2019nin faizleri art\u0131rmaya devam edebilme kapasitesine dair \u015f\u00fcphelerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Nisan enflasyonu %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korusa da, piyasada faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131; vadeli fiyatlamalar 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan\u0131nda daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f patikas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, bir ay \u00f6nce sterlini destekleyen \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fla (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli olmas\u0131) belirgin bir tezat.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasalarda (kur gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler ve opsiyonlar) bu belirsizlik, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Nitekim bir ay vadeli GBP\/USD \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %7\u2019den %9\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr bir ortamda, b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmaya y\u00f6nelik stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar: \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) almak. B\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc do\u011fru tahmin etmek zorunda kalmadan sterlinde sert bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
2022 mini b\u00fct\u00e7e krizinin verdi\u011fi ders \u00f6nemli: Siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131, kamu maliyesi riskine (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\/bor\u00e7 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi endi\u015fesi) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde sterlinde \u00e7ok sert sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. Mevcut siyasi sorunlar kayg\u0131 verse de hen\u00fcz o d\u00fczeyde bir krize ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in sterlin, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 geri vermedi. \u0130zlenmesi gereken kritik nokta, siyasi riskin mali riske d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, Epic Fury sonras\u0131 dalgaland\u0131: Martta geriledi, nisanda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; may\u0131sta siyasi risklerle zay\u0131flad\u0131. BoE\u2019nin \u015fahinli\u011fi sorgulan\u0131rken oynakl\u0131k %9\u2019u a\u015ft\u0131; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mini b\u00fct\u00e7e dersi: mali risk kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46681\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}