ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, 9 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren haftada 211 bin oldu. Bu seviye beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ve \u00f6nceki haftadaki 199 binin (200 binden revize edildi) \u00fcst\u00fcnde. D\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalama (k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmay\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in son d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 0,750 bin artarak 203,75 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (203 binden).<\/p>\n
S\u00fcregelen ba\u015fvurular (i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi almaya devam edenlerin say\u0131s\u0131) 2 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren haftada 24 bin art\u0131\u015fla 1,782 milyona y\u00fckseldi. Veriler Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,50 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; piyasalarda net bir y\u00f6n olu\u015fmazken jeopolitik belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Raporda, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verilerinin harcama, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon \u00fczerinden kur fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (maa\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi) talebi etkiler ve \u00fccret zamlar\u0131 fiyatlara yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enflasyonu art\u0131rabilir. Merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00fccretleri yak\u0131ndan izler; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc maa\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, enerji gibi kalemlerin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimlerine g\u00f6re daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olma e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerini kendi hedeflerine g\u00f6re de\u011ferlendirir. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u201cmaksimum istihdam\u201d ve \u201cfiyat istikrar\u0131\u201dn\u0131 hedeflerken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) daha \u00e7ok enflasyona odaklan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Haftal\u0131k ba\u015fvurular\u0131n 211 bine hafif y\u00fckselmesi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda kademeli bir yumu\u015fama ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, sert bir bozulma de\u011fil; y\u00fcksek faizlerin ekonomiyi yava\u015flatma amac\u0131yla etkisini g\u00f6stermesi olarak okunabilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar) bu ince de\u011fi\u015fim, Fed\u2019in ilerideki kararlar\u0131na dair \u00f6nemli bir sinyal.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ilk faiz indirimini g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ya da d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutulmu\u015f ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu) h\u00e2l\u00e2 inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %2,9 civar\u0131nda olsa da, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fumas\u0131 \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve karar al\u0131c\u0131lara alan a\u00e7ar. \u00dclke geneli i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek bu kademeli yava\u015flamay\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, orta vadede daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere g\u00f6re pozisyon alma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli. Bunun do\u011frudan bir yolu, SOFR\u2019a (Secured Overnight Financing Rate: ABD\u2019de teminatl\u0131 gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi; piyasa faizlerinin temel referanslar\u0131ndan) ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri almak; \u00f6rne\u011fin Eyl\u00fcl ya da Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (futures: belirli bir tarihte \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131). Piyasa Fed faiz indirimi beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar de\u011fer kazanabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in tam olarak ne zaman y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fine dair belirsizlik, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131rabilir. Tek bir istihdam verisi politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi i\u00e7in yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in tart\u0131\u015fma ve spek\u00fclasyon d\u00f6nemi uzayabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu VIX endeksi (piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u00fczerine opsiyon alarak ya da ana endekslerde straddle stratejisi kullanarak de\u011ferlendirebilir. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6nde olursa olsun sert hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha az s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131, temel olarak dolar i\u00e7in olumsuzdur; jeopolitik riskler k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli destek verse bile. ABD faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali, dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha az cazip k\u0131lar. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) alarak veya euro ya da yen \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) alarak ifade edilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 211 bine \u00e7\u0131karak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131, 4 haftal\u0131k ortalama 203,75 bin. S\u00fcregelen ba\u015fvurular 1,782 milyon. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc so\u011fuyor; Fed indirimi Q3-Q4 sinyali, dolar bask\u0131lanabilir. Oynakl\u0131k artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46680\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}