ABD\u2019de \u201ckontrol grubu\u201d perakende sat\u0131\u015flar nisan ay\u0131nda %0,5 artt\u0131. (\u201cKontrol grubu\u201d: \u00c7ekirdek talebi daha net g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in otomobil, benzin, yap\u0131 malzemeleri ve restoran gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak hesaplanan perakende sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stergesi.)<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki ay art\u0131\u015f %0,7 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %0,7\u2019den %0,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ge\u00e7mi\u015f faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye etkisinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, t\u00fcketicinin daha temkinli davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Tek ba\u015f\u0131na bu veri resesyon (ekonomide yayg\u0131n ve belirgin daralma) sinyali de\u011fil; b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131z kesti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor, ekonominin so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steren di\u011fer verilerle uyumlu. \u00d6rne\u011fin son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %3,2\u2019ye gerileyerek 2024 sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi. Ayr\u0131ca ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 hafif y\u00fckseldi; 4 haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalama (k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmay\u0131 yumu\u015fatan ortalama) 225 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in yaz boyunca faizi sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne damga vuran s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) bitti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Sabit veya d\u00fc\u015fen faizden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalinin artmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc haber iyi haberdir\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede destek verebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 riski azal\u0131yor. Ancak piyasa, yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar zay\u0131flataca\u011f\u0131 ile faiz gerilemesinin de\u011ferlemeleri ne kadar destekleyece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in (hedge: riski dengeleme) haziran vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ucuz bir ara\u00e7 olabilir. (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi.)<\/p>\n
Bu veri, sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 i\u015flemler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Harcamalardaki yava\u015flama, \u201czorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim\u201d hisselerini (consumer discretionary: gelir artsa da al\u0131nan, daral\u0131nca ertelenen \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetler) daha fazla etkiler. XLY gibi ETF\u2019ler \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutuyoruz. (ETF: bir endeksi\/sepete yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu.)<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131 (dovish: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine sabit veya indirim yanl\u0131s\u0131 duru\u015f) ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 da zay\u0131flatabilir; \u00f6zellikle Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d mesajlar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131 duru\u015f). Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviyelerini test etme potansiyeli var. Dolara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alan t\u00fcrev stratejiler (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn), \u00f6rne\u011fin UUP ETF \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de kontrol grubu perakende sat\u0131\u015flar nisanda %0,5\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131: Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, resesyon yok. Enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 da so\u011fumay\u0131 teyit; yaz\u0131n faiz sabit, indirim fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46676\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}