TD Securities, petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki son gev\u015femenin ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fini, arz taraf\u0131nda (\u00fcretim ve sevkiyat) riskler ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 150 dolar seviyesine, hatta \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini belirtti. Kurum, spek\u00fclatif para giri\u015flerinin (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat ama\u00e7l\u0131 fon ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in depolardan petrol \u00e7ekmesi (stok azalt\u0131m\u0131), rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n (benzin\/dizel gibi i\u015flenmi\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcnler) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve ABD stoklar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmesinin fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Notta, piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6rece sakin bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, ancak ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n (d\u00fczenli arz ve tanker sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n) yeniden ba\u015flamamas\u0131 halinde yeni bir aksaman\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi vurguland\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019den y\u00fcksek ihracat hacimleriyle, nisan ay\u0131ndaki panik al\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda sat\u0131n al\u0131nan di\u011fer kargolar\u0131n (tanker y\u00fcklerinin) Avrupa ve Asya\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 eklendi.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, rafinerilerin \u015fu anda hemen kullanabilecekleri ham petrole sahip oldu\u011funu ve yeni sevkiyatlar\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almadan \u00f6nce \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bitebilece\u011fi ihtimalini beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi. Y\u00fcksek ihracat ve rafinerilerin y\u00fcksek kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, yaz boyunca ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde gerilemesine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini, bunun da yak\u0131n vadede bitecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor, ancak bunun ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu ve fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) yeniden kap\u0131da oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Avrupa ve Asya\u2019daki bir\u00e7ok rafineri, nisan ay\u0131ndaki panik d\u00f6neminde al\u0131nan ham petrol\u00fc kullan\u0131yor ve ileri vadeli sevkiyatlar\u0131 ba\u011flamadan (gelecekte teslim edilecek y\u00fckler i\u00e7in anla\u015fma yapmadan) \u00f6nce beklemeyi tercih ediyor. Bu durum, temel g\u00f6stergeler (arz-talep dengesi) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya devam ederken sahte bir g\u00fcven hissi yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ABD\u2019de net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA, ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) son raporuna g\u00f6re ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 4,2 milyon varil daha d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, ilkbahar boyunca s\u00fcren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc stok \u00e7ekili\u015flerinin (stoklar\u0131n h\u0131zla azalmas\u0131n\u0131n) devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde; y\u00fcksek ihracat ve rafinerilerin y\u00fcksek kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131yla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bunu besliyor. Yaz\u0131n \u201cs\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu\u201dnda (ABD\u2019de yaz aylar\u0131nda yolculuklar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, yak\u0131t talebinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem) bu stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131 ve yak\u0131n vadede bir biti\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00c7in\u2019den gelen talep sinyalleri g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisi 51,4 oldu ve \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 ay b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etti. (PMI, sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri \u00fcretimde art\u0131\u015f, alt\u0131 daralma anlam\u0131na gelir.) Artan sanayi talebi, kritik bir dar bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki yenilenen deniz gerilimleriyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. Bu geli\u015fmeler, mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir arz riskini tam yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, Brent\u2019te uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) mevcut risklerin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne g\u00f6re ucuz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma d\u00fczeyi) \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. \u201cParan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan, \u015fu an i\u00e7in k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda, \u00f6rne\u011fin yaz sonu vadeli kontratlar i\u00e7in 140 veya 150 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde pozisyon biriktirmek, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 potansiyel sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar sakin ama f\u0131rt\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor: TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re arz\/sevkiyat riskleri artarsa Brent 150 dolar\u0131 a\u015fabilir. ABD stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, \u00c7in talebi, rafineri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 iter; ucuz al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 f\u0131rsat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46670\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}