NZD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa saatlerinde \u00fc\u00e7 seans \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 0,5930 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131, \u00fclkede b\u00fct\u00e7enin zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 (mali bask\u0131) beklentilerinin artmas\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k anketi de zay\u0131f havay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ankete g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon, daha y\u00fcksek faiz, daha y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik ve daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Piyasalar, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Yeni Zelanda g\u0131da enflasyonu verisi ve imalat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 imalatta daralmaya i\u015faret eder) \u00f6ncesinde sakin kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara talebin artmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. G\u00f6zler Pekin\u2019de ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping aras\u0131ndaki zirveye \u00e7evrildi. Daha sonra odak, ABD Nisan Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisine kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00fcretici d\u00fczeyindeki enflasyon da dolar\u0131 destekledi. \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE; \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi (Mart: %4,3) ve %4,9 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Ayl\u0131k bazda %1,4 artt\u0131 (\u00f6nceki: %0,7; beklenti: %0,5).<\/p>\n
NZD; Yeni Zelanda ekonomik verileri, RBNZ\u2019nin %1\u2013%3 enflasyon hedefi (orta nokta %2) ve ABD ile faiz farklar\u0131ndan etkilenir. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in ekonomisindeki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihracat fiyatlar\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) de\u011fi\u015fimlere de s\u0131k tepki verir.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD 0,5930 \u00e7evresinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k belirgin. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kendi anketi, enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlikte art\u0131\u015fla zor bir y\u0131la i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, \u201cKiwi\u201d (NZD\u2019nin piyasa takma ad\u0131) i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride iyimserli\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallerle de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor. ABD \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,0\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 NZD\/USD \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 kuruyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n son enflasyon verileriyle de destekleniyor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 %4,5 seviyesinde kald\u0131; bu oran RBNZ\u2019nin hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. RBNZ, bu nedenle politika faizini (resm\u00ee nakit faizi; ekonomideki temel k\u0131sa vadeli faiz) %5,50\u2019de sabit tuttu ve gerekirse ek art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi sinyalini verdi. Ancak Fed de benzer \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu\u011fundan, Kiwi\u2019nin \u201cgetiri avantaj\u0131\u201d (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan avantaj) s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Pekin\u2019deki zirve de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Yeni Zelanda i\u00e7in kritik. Ge\u00e7en haftaki veriler, \u00c7in imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 49,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu seviye daralmaya i\u015faret eder ve Yeni Zelanda ihracat\u0131na talep konusunda endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu belirsizlik, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 riskli Kiwi yerine ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6neltebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo alt\u0131nda, NZD\/USD kurunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 0,5900 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir yol sunuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritenin beklenmedik \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi halinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar (tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk).<\/p>\n
2023 sonlar\u0131nda da benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te, iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 sonunda pariteyi 0,5800\u2019in alt\u0131na itmi\u015fti. Mevcut ABD enflasyon verileri o d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fundan bask\u0131n\u0131n benzer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yo\u011fun kalabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu nedenle, paritenin zorlanmas\u0131 beklenen bir d\u00f6nemde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in hemen kullan\u0131labilir olmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) sat\u0131p prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak da bir se\u00e7enek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede odak, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Yeni Zelanda g\u0131da enflasyonu ve imalat PMI verilerine kay\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f bir veri seti, yatay seyrin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ve paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketine neden olabilir. Bu g\u00f6stergeler, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc teyit etmek i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NZD\/USD 0,5930\u2019da: Kiwi mali bask\u0131, zay\u0131f talep ve RBNZ anketiyle geriliyor. ABD\u2019de g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ve \u00dcFE\u2019nin %6\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; g\u00f6zler NZ g\u0131da enflasyonu\/PMI\u2019da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46660\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}