\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH, ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam de\u011fer) 1. \u00e7eyrekte (Q1) \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,6 artt\u0131. Veri beklentilerle uyumlu geldi.<\/p>\n
Veriler, \u00f6nceki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Kaynakta ba\u015fka rakam payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %0,6 ile tam beklentiye oturdu; yani piyasa bu bilgiyi zaten fiyatlara yans\u0131tm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan sterlin ve FTSE 100 opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) geriledi. S\u00fcrpriz olmamas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli bir belirsizli\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu istikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme teyit edilince odak tamamen \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz ad\u0131m\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu %0,6\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviye ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi gerek\u00e7esini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. \u201cGecelik Endeks Swaplar\u0131\u201d (OIS; piyasada gelecekteki politika faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) art\u0131k A\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %25\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
FTSE 100 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u0130ngiltere hisseleri i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli haber riski azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyattan k\u00e2rda olmayan) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) satarak \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir. Ekonomik istikrar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; ancak y\u00fcksek faizler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda ise veri, sterlinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ve gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015f sinyali verdi\u011fi euro gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 sterlin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 ihtimali, sterlini destekleyebilir. 2025\u2019te sterlinin tepkisine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ngiltere verileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ya da ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde sterlinin d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Detaylara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fckledi; sekt\u00f6r \u00e7eyrekte %0,7 geni\u015fledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k sanayi \u00fcretimi yatay kald\u0131 ve 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen zay\u0131fl\u0131k e\u011filimi devam etti. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u201ce\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f i\u015flem\u201d (pairs trade; bir varl\u0131k\/ sekt\u00f6r al\u0131n\u0131rken benzerinde sat\u0131\u015f yaparak farktan getiri hedefleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) i\u00e7in alan yaratabilir: sanayi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015firketler yerine hizmet odakl\u0131 \u015firketleri tercih etmek gibi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ngiltere ekonomisi Q1\u2019de %0,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek beklentiyi tutturarak s\u00fcrpriz b\u0131rakmad\u0131; sterlin ve FTSE\u2019de oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. BoE\u2019nin erken faiz indirimi zay\u0131flad\u0131; hizmetler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, sanayi yatay.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46641\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}