\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticaret dengesi martta geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde \u00a3-7,097 milyar olan a\u00e7\u0131k, \u00a3-15,195 milyara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu, AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkelerle ihracat (d\u0131\u015far\u0131 sat\u0131m) ile ithalat (d\u0131\u015far\u0131 al\u0131m) aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na geliyor. Mart verisi, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00a315,2 milyara h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde geni\u015flemesi, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini i\u00e7in belirgin bir olumsuz (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) sinyal. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) verilerine g\u00f6re a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde yak\u0131t ve makine ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f etkili oldu. Bu durum, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda (para birimlerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) daha fazla sterlin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD\u2019de (Sterlin\/ABD Dolar\u0131 paritesi; iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 beklenebilir. Parite son bir ayda %2 gerileyerek 1,2250 civar\u0131na inmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha zay\u0131f bir sterline haz\u0131rl\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar GBP\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi kur) mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131na koyarak 2025 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,20 destek seviyesine (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma e\u011filim g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi b\u00f6lge) do\u011fru olas\u0131 gerilemeden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. GBP vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde (futures; belirli bir tarihte \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyattan i\u015flem yapma s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u201d (elinde olmadan sat\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte geri alma) daha do\u011frudan bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi stratejisidir.<\/p>\n
Bu ticaret verisi, nisan enflasyonunun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) beklenti d\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselerek %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in ayr\u0131ca kritik. A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ithalat\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu da \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoE) haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde zorlayabilir ve olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini daha az olas\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatmaya ba\u015flayabilir. Zay\u0131f kur ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon birle\u015fimi, karar vericileri s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 \u00e7izgisinde (\u015fahin duru\u015f; faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) kalmaya itebilir. K\u0131sa Sterlin (SONIA) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal ara\u00e7lar) faizlerin beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
Tersine, sterlinin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 FTSE 100 endeksini (Londra borsas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 100 \u015firketini izleyen g\u00f6sterge) destekleyebilir. Endeksteki bir\u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firket gelirinin \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131yla elde eder; sterlin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirlerin sterlin kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselir. Bu ili\u015fki 2023\u2019teki kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; FTSE 100 g\u00f6rece dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle endekste al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin AB d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 martta \u00a37,1 milyardan \u00a315,2 milyara f\u0131rlad\u0131. Yak\u0131t-makine ithalat\u0131 artt\u0131; GBP\/USD\u2019ye a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131, FTSE 100\u2019e kur deste\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46639\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}