NZD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde 0,5935 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin sonucunu beklerken parite geriledi. Asya borsalar\u0131 genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi; Nikkei 225 endeksi %0,3 kay\u0131pla yakla\u015f\u0131k 63.070\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 98,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00f6r\u00fclen haftal\u0131k zirve 98,60\u2019a yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret ba\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle \u00c7in\u2019e ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmelere duyarl\u0131 kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131) yukar\u0131 itmesi, bu y\u0131l ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME FedWatch (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) 2025\u2019te en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %32,2 olarak g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde NZD\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA \u2013 son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) 0,5909 seviyesinin ve %50,0 Fibonacci seviyesinin (Fibonacci \u2013 fiyat\u0131n olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgelerini bulmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan oranlar) 0,5890\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Parite, 0,5938\u20130,5939 b\u00f6lgesindeki %61,8 Fibonacci alan\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Yukar\u0131da diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 0,6008 ve 0,6095\u2019te izleniyor.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da destek (fiyat\u0131 tutan seviye) 0,5909 ve 0,5890\u2019da, ard\u0131ndan 0,5842 ve 0,5782\u2019de bulunuyor. Daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bir referans seviye 0,5686 olarak belirtilirken 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi \u2013 fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 55 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD\u2019nin kritik 0,5940 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri korumakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu seviye \u00f6nemli bir teknik e\u015fik. Piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 temkinli; ABD\u2019den gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak yeni enflasyon verileri bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) daha uzun s\u00fcre korumas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle destek buluyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE \u2013 t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6sterir) Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in %3,4 geldi. Bu da Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha sert, faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yak\u0131n) \u00e7izgide kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %45\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %20 idi.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131, \u00c7in ekonomisine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve daha zay\u0131f yurt i\u00e7i veriler nedeniyle bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Son Global Dairy Trade (GDT \u2013 Yeni Zelanda i\u00e7in kritik s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde uluslararas\u0131 fiyat olu\u015fumunu g\u00f6steren ihale) ihalesinde tam ya\u011fl\u0131 s\u00fct tozu fiyatlar\u0131 %1,8 geriledi. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) ise daha temkinli kalma ihtimali olan yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, dolar lehine bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 0,5940 pivot (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda merkez ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) \u00e7evresinde ya k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da yatay seyir ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. Olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD enflasyon verisiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in 0,5900 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) NZD\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put \u2013 belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. B\u00f6ylece parite beklenmedik \u015fekilde y\u00fckselse bile risk \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f olur.<\/p>\n
Paritenin yak\u0131n vadede bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa k\u0131sa strangle (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda, biri al\u0131m biri sat\u0131m olmak \u00fczere opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; fiyat\u0131n dar aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefler) stratejisi de se\u00e7enek olabilir. Bu, 0,6010 direncinin \u00fczerinde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money \u2013 \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rs\u0131z oldu\u011fu) bir al\u0131m opsiyonu (call \u2013 belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ile 0,5840 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir. Bu y\u00f6ntem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan (volatilite \u2013 fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) faydalan\u0131r; ancak sert hareket riskine kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli risk y\u00f6netimi gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NZD\/USD 0,5935\u2019e gerilerken g\u00f6zler Trump-\u015ei g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinde. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc DXY ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; 0,5940 pivotu kritik, destek 0,5900. Opsiyonda put\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46636\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}