USD\/CNH, 30 Nisan\u2019da ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve 6,7815 ile 39 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde Pekin\u2019de ba\u015flayan Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda 6,7850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. <\/p>\n
Toplant\u0131, ili\u015fkilerin istikrarl\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fcvenli\u011fe ili\u015fkin mesajlarla ba\u015flad\u0131. Trump, ili\u015fkilerin iyile\u015fmesini bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
Yetkililerin, hassas olmayan mallarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00fcr\u00fcn grubunda g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik bir \u201cBoard of Trade\u201d \u00e7er\u00e7evesini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bildiriliyor. (Bu ifade, piyasalarda genelde \u201cticaret \u00e7er\u00e7evesi\/uzla\u015f\u0131 paketi\u201d anlam\u0131nda, vergileri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir d\u00fczenleme tasla\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r.) G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131, ticaret a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 (bilgisayarlar\u0131n insan benzeri \u015fekilde \u00f6\u011frenip karar verebilmesi), ve Tayvan konular\u0131n\u0131n da ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor. <\/p>\n
Zirve, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler nedeniyle haftalarca ertelendi. Trump\u2019\u0131n, \u00c7in\u2019den Tahran\u2019a bask\u0131 yaparak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na destek vermesini istemesi bekleniyor; ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ana g\u00fcndem olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da vurguluyor. <\/p>\n
\u201cTicaret sava\u015f\u0131\u201d, \u00fclkelerin yerli \u00fcretimi korumak i\u00e7in g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi gibi \u00f6nlemler almas\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131n da misillemeyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle olu\u015fan ekonomik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r. Bu ad\u0131mlar, ithalat maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131r ve t\u00fcketicinin ya\u015fam maliyetini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. <\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u00c7in ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2018\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131 ve Ocak 2020\u2019de \u201cPhase One\u201d anla\u015fmas\u0131na (ilk a\u015fama uzla\u015fmas\u0131) yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Biden g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini korudu ve baz\u0131 ek vergiler getirdi; Trump ise ABD\u2019nin 47. Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak geri d\u00f6n\u00fcp %60 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi ve 20 Ocak 2025\u2019te uygulamaya ald\u0131. <\/p>\n
\u00c7in yuan\u0131ndaki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7lenme dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, devam eden Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir oynakl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. (Oynakl\u0131k, fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131d\u0131r.) USD\/CNH paritesi 39 ay\u0131n dibinde; bu iyimserli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor, ancak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 halinde sert bir ters hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket riskine kar\u015f\u0131 \u201copsiyon\u201dlarla (belirli vadede belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren \u00fcr\u00fcn) korunmay\u0131 veya hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. <\/p>\n
USD\/CNH opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cimplied volatility\u201dnin (piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131; 2018\u20132019 ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131nda benzer tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u201cStraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (fiyat yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte i\u00e7eren stratejiler) ile, zirvenin sonucundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Piyasan\u0131n hareketi abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyorsa, \u201ciron condor\u201d gibi (dar bantta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, birden fazla opsiyonun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131) stratejilerle oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. <\/p>\n
Belirsizlik hisse piyasalar\u0131na da yans\u0131r; \u00f6zellikle VIX\u2019e, yani \u201ckorku endeksi\u201dne. (VIX, S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan ve piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren endekstir.) A\u011fustos 2019\u2019da s\u00fcrpriz bir g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 VIX\u2019i bir g\u00fcnde %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu haftaki zirveden olumsuz sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 benzer bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yaratabilir; VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya VIX\u2019e ba\u011fl\u0131 borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF) \u00fczerinden korunma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. <\/p>\n
Tedarik zinciri (malzeme ve \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcretimden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ma uzanan tedarik a\u011f\u0131) \u00c7in\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015firketler de izlenmeli; \u00f6zellikle yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) ve t\u00fcketici elektroni\u011fi sekt\u00f6rleri. ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in ile ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ithalat\u0131n ihracattan fazla olmas\u0131) 2023\u2019te 279,4 milyar dolard\u0131 ve Trump\u2019\u0131n 2025\u2019te g\u00f6reve d\u00f6n\u00fcnce uygulamaya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri bu ili\u015fkileri zaten zorlad\u0131. \u00d6nerilen \u201cBoard of Trade\u201d \u00e7er\u00e7evesine dair haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, belirli hisselerde veya sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla etkileyebilir. <\/p>\n
Soya fasulyesi gibi emtialar da kritik e\u015fikte; ge\u00e7mi\u015fte misilleme vergilerinin ana hedeflerinden biriydi. \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019den al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 2018\u2019de soya fasulyesi vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) sert d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Anla\u015fma, vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k ise fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. Bu nedenle tar\u0131m emtia opsiyonlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenebilir. <\/p>\n
Son olarak, \u0130ran ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 g\u00fcndemi enerji piyasalar\u0131na \u00f6nemli risk ta\u015f\u0131r. Diplomatik ba\u015far\u0131 gerilimi azalt\u0131p petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir; Pekin\u2019in i\u015f birli\u011fine yana\u015fmamas\u0131 ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskinin artmas\u0131 olarak okunabilir. Bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda %20\u201330 s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fine dair de\u011ferlendirmeler varken, WTI veya Brent ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131 bu jeopolitik riske do\u011frudan pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik zirve, yuan\u0131 co\u015fturdu: USD\/CNH 6,7815\u2019le 39 ay\u0131n dibinde. Trump\u2013\u015ei g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve 30 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k \u201cBoard of Trade\u201d paketi beklentisi iyimser; t\u0131kanma sert ters hareket, VIX\/emtia-petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46635\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}