Donald Trump ile \u015ei Cinping aras\u0131nda planlanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar y\u00fckseldi; i\u015flem yapanlar, geziye ba\u011fl\u0131 i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 liderlerini izledi. NVIDIA hisseleri, CEO Jensen Huang\u2019\u0131n Trump\u2019\u0131n heyetine kat\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Micron, Qualcomm, Tesla ve Boeing de prim yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 ve Nasdaq, daha s\u0131cak (beklenenden y\u00fcksek) veriler ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullara ra\u011fmen yeni rekorlara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131 (\u015firketlerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tmadan \u00f6nceki maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00dcFE) beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; tahvil faizleri y\u00fckseldi, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, petrol oynak kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hareketler, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yapay zek\u00e2 ve teknoloji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 dar bir hisse grubunda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131; di\u011fer alanlar geride kald\u0131. Reel ekonomi hisseleri (g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u00fcketim ve \u00fcretime daha ba\u011fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler) ve d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisseler (ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken iyi, yava\u015flarken k\u00f6t\u00fc performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde olanlar) gerilerken, likidite (piyasadaki kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilir para) hisse senetlerine kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n ve bitcoin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon i\u015flemleri (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma-satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yo\u011fun \u201ccall\u201d (al\u0131m) al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n korunma al\u0131mlar\u0131yla momentumu (fiyat hareketinin ivmesi) b\u00fcy\u00fctmeye devam etti. Trump\u2013\u015ei g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi etraf\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir hareket bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret eden fiyatlamalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130lgi, ABD\u2019nin NVIDIA\u2019n\u0131n Blackwell \u00e7iplerine y\u00f6nelik ihracat s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, H200 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 da izleniyordu. Ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri, teknoloji kontrolleri (kritik \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ihracat\/transfer k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131), kritik mineraller, havac\u0131l\u0131k ticareti, tar\u0131m ve \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 kapsamas\u0131 bekleniyordu.<\/p>\n
Zirve \u00f6ncesinde petrol, birka\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hafif geriledi. K\u00fcresel dizel k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k, \u00fcretim, g\u0131da da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 ve enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkileri de g\u00fcndemdeydi. \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019la ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 ile istikrarl\u0131 ticaret yollar\u0131 ve enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ilgisi, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u015fekillendiren fakt\u00f6rler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025 sonundaki piyasaya bak\u0131nca, yapay zek\u00e2 rallisinin Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi \u00f6ncesinde her makro uyar\u0131y\u0131 \u00f6nemsemedi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bug\u00fcn May\u0131s 2026\u2019da piyasa psikolojisi benzer g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor: VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131labilecek 13 civar\u0131nda; bu da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 rahat bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, SPX veya NDX gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde koruyucu \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131\u015f) opsiyonu almay\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor; ani \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa liderli\u011fi daha da darald\u0131. Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fcn en b\u00fcy\u00fck be\u015f \u015firketi art\u0131k endeks a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %40\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; bu da riski birka\u00e7 hisseye y\u0131\u011fan yo\u011fun bir yap\u0131 demek. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu yapay zek\u00e2 liderlerinde \u201ccall spread\u201d (bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 fiyattan ba\u015fka bir call satarak maliyeti ve azami riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) kullanarak y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131, dar liderlik bozulursa da zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rmezden geldi\u011fi enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 kaybolmad\u0131; ekonomide kal\u0131c\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u015fiddetli bir bask\u0131 olarak s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Son T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde. Bu ortam, hisse de\u011ferlemeleri i\u00e7in risk yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle ekonomik yava\u015flama sinyali, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisseleri sert vurabilir; sanayi veya ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ETF\u2019lerinde (bir endeksi\/sekt\u00f6r\u00fc takip eden borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) uzun vadeli putlar, yapay zek\u00e2 hik\u00e2yesi zay\u0131flarsa koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Jensen Huang\u2019\u0131n 2025\u2019te ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k heyetiyle \u00c7in\u2019e gitmesi, jeopolitik sembollerin ekonomik veriden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. O g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme, yapay zek\u00e2 \u00e7ipi ihracat\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir yumu\u015famaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fck ralli getirmi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn de benzer politika sinyalleri izleniyor. Yakla\u015fan ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri veya teknoloji politikas\u0131 duyurular\u0131, dalgalanma yaratabilecek bir olay anlam\u0131na geliyor; SOXX gibi yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde \u201cstraddle\/strangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan stratejiler) ile de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cgamma squeeze\u201d benzeri s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalar gibi, momentumu besleyen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir motor olmaya devam ediyor. Y\u00fcksek miktarda call al\u0131m\u0131, arac\u0131 kurumlar\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in dayanak hisseleri almaya zorlayarak fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten kendi kendini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum pop\u00fcler teknoloji hisselerinde k\u0131sa vadeli call\u2019lar\u0131 cazip k\u0131lsa da, duyarl\u0131l\u0131k tersine d\u00f6nerse sert bir geri \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme riski olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
2025 sonunda ham petrol, arz korkular\u0131 ve jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeyle sert dalgalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131nda dar bantta g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, temel arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler bitmi\u015f de\u011fil. Enerji hisseleri veya USO gibi petrol ETF\u2019lerinde opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131, ani bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131, rehavet i\u00e7indeki hisse piyasas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferli bir koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Trump\u2013\u015ei zirvesi \u00f6ncesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131 tavan: S&P\/Nasdaq rekor tazeledi, NVIDIA liderli\u011finde dar \u201cAI\u201d rallisi h\u0131zland\u0131. S\u0131cak \u00dcFE, y\u00fcksek faiz\/dolar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX; opsiyon call\u2019lar\u0131 momentumu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131n\/Bitcoin geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46627\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}