Malezya, hanelerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 RON 95 yak\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Ham petrol y\u0131l boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa bu ad\u0131m, yak\u0131t deste\u011finin (devletin yak\u0131t fiyat\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak i\u00e7in \u00f6dedi\u011fi maliyet) b\u00fct\u00e7eye y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc GSYH\u2019nin (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2\u2019siyle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ek destek maliyetinin de, ortalama petrol fiyat\u0131 100 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmad\u0131k\u00e7a bu aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda para biriminin de\u011fer kaybetmesi (kurun y\u00fckselmesi), destek maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kur seviyeleri mevcut d\u00fczeylerde sabit kal\u0131rsa, tahmini destek maliyetleri Malezya\u2019da GSYH\u2019nin %0,2\u2019si, Endonezya\u2019da %0,6\u2019s\u0131. Bu tahminler, petrol fiyat\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kuruna ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n
En k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda, faiz y\u00fck\u00fc y\u00fcksek olan (borcun faizi i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00e7eden daha fazla pay ay\u0131ran) \u00fclkeler, \u00f6rne\u011fin Hindistan, \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ayr\u0131ca daha k\u0131sa bor\u00e7 vadesi (borcun daha \u00e7abuk yenilenmek zorunda kalmas\u0131), Endonezya ve Malezya\u2019da yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n elindeki bor\u00e7 pay\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ve Endonezya\u2019da d\u00f6viz cinsi borcun (yerel para yerine dolar gibi yabanc\u0131 para ile bor\u00e7) daha b\u00fcy\u00fck paya sahip olmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkili.<\/p>\n
Malezya\u2019da kamu borcu GSYH\u2019nin %65,3\u2019\u00fc; toplam borcun %21,1\u2019i yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n elinde. Uzun bor\u00e7 vadeleri ve geli\u015fmi\u015f yerel sermaye piyasalar\u0131 (\u015firketlerin ve devletin i\u00e7eride tahvil\/hisse ihra\u00e7 ederek finansman bulabildi\u011fi piyasa), k\u00fcresel tahvil faizlerindeki dalgalanmalara (k\u00fcresel \u201cgetiri\u201d hareketleri; tahvil faizleri) duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltan unsurlar olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Malezya\u2019n\u0131n kamu maliyesini (devletin gelir-gider dengesi) ko\u015fullu olarak istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunun temel nedeni RON 95 i\u00e7in y\u00f6netilen yak\u0131t deste\u011fi. Bu istikrar, ham petrol\u00fcn kritik 100 ABD dolar\u0131\/varil e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. Brent petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel referans petrol fiyat\u0131) arz endi\u015feleriyle yak\u0131n zamanda 96 ABD dolar\u0131na kadar y\u00fckselmesi, bu s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n test edildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Mali bask\u0131 riskini izlemek i\u00e7in ana g\u00f6sterge Malezya Ringgiti. Kur dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 4,75 civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131, ancak 2025\u2019te emtia (petrol\/metal gibi ham madde) fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen hassasiyeti hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 kurun \u00fczerinde olan USD\/MYR al\u0131m opsiyonu (kur daha da y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan \u201copsiyon\u201d; \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d yani \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan) almak, petrol fiyat\u0131 daha da y\u00fckselirse olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma yolu sunar.<\/p>\n
Devlet borcundaki uzun vadeler tampon sa\u011flasa da, %20,5\u2019lik yabanc\u0131 sahipli\u011fi \u00f6nemli bir zay\u0131f nokta. Bu y\u0131l yabanc\u0131 pay\u0131nda hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, k\u00fcresel tahvil faizlerindeki hareketlere duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) beklenmedik \u015fekilde daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 sinyali vermesi (\u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f; faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131), Malezya devlet tahvili (MGS; Malaysian Government Securities) faizlerini yukar\u0131 itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent 96 dolarda: Malezya RON95\u2019e zam yapmad\u0131; petrol 100$ alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa s\u00fcbvansiyon y\u00fck\u00fc GSYH\u2019nin %0,2\u2019sinde. Risk: Ringgit zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yabanc\u0131 tahvil pay\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46624"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46624\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}