ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI: \u00fcreticinin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steren enflasyon verisi) beklentileri a\u015f\u0131nca 98,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu seviye Nisan sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Man\u015fet PPI (genel endeks) Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k %1,4 artt\u0131; beklenti %0,5\u2019ti. \u00c7ekirdek PPI (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %1,0 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle EUR\/USD 1,1710\u2019a, GBP\/USD 1,3520\u2019ye geriledi. USD\/JPY 156,90 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, AUD\/USD 0,7250\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 4,3 milyon varil azald\u0131ktan sonra varil ba\u015f\u0131na 101,20 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar\u0131n talebi azaltmas\u0131yla 4.690 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe, 14 May\u0131s g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriler: Avustralya May\u0131s t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentileri, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Mart ayl\u0131k GSYH (GDP: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (\u00e7eyreklik ve y\u0131ll\u0131k, \u00f6nc\u00fc), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Mart sanayi ve imalat \u00fcretimi, Almanya Nisan HICP y\u0131ll\u0131k (HICP: AB uyumlu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu), ABD haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, ABD Nisan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar (man\u015fet, kontrol grubu ve otomobil hari\u00e7). Yeni Zelanda Nisan Business NZ PMI (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi, i\u015f aktivitesini \u00f6l\u00e7er) da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Fransa Nisan T\u00dcFE (AB normu y\u0131ll\u0131k ve y\u0131ll\u0131k), ABD NY Empire State endeksi (New York b\u00f6lgesi imalat endeksi) ve ABD Nisan sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri izlenecek.<\/p>\n
WTI, ABD ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6sterge fiyatt\u0131r ve Cushing teslim noktas\u0131 \u00fczerinden fiyatlan\u0131r. Fiyatlar arz-talep dengesine, OPEC \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131na, ABD dolar\u0131na ve API ile EIA stok raporlar\u0131na (API: Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, EIA: ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) duyarl\u0131d\u0131r; bu iki rapor yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 oran\u0131nda birbirine %1 i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n seyreder.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019teki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PPI verisi, enflasyon endi\u015felerinin dolar\u0131 h\u0131zla destekleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn tablo farkl\u0131 olsa da ana tema ayn\u0131: Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) enflasyonun %3,1 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; bu nedenle dolarda geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce Euro zaten dolara kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131ft\u0131 ve 1,1710\u2019a geriliyordu. Benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bug\u00fcn de var; EUR\/USD, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Fed\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirimi sinyali vermesiyle 1,0750 civar\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle 1,0800\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta siyasi kayg\u0131lar ve Gilt oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (Gilt: \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili; oynakl\u0131k: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) Sterlin\u2019i bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not etmi\u015ftik. Bu riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin %0,2 gibi zay\u0131f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermesi de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc teyit ediyor. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi bekleniyor. Put opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) 1,2450 destek seviyesinin (destek: fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir sarkmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n (yield gap: iki \u00fclkenin tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) geni\u015flemesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde 156,90\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; tema daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,5 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda. Bu tablo g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar tezini destekliyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de call opsiyonlar\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; ancak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya d\u00f6vizle m\u00fcdahale) riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkin gerekli.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019te d\u00fc\u015fen stoklar ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi WTI\u2019yi varil ba\u015f\u0131na 101 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Jeopolitik riskler s\u00fcrse de bu haftaki EIA raporu 2,5 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da petrol\u00fcn 85 dolar civar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm band i\u00e7inde bir piyasaya i\u015faret ediyor; 88 dolar \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonu ile kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji; sat\u0131\u015f: prim geliri hedeflenir) zay\u0131flayan talep sinyallerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen faizler, jeopolitik belirsizlik deste\u011fine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yordu. Bug\u00fcn de benzer: Alt\u0131n, k\u00fcresel gerilimlere kar\u015f\u0131n 2.350 dolar seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Faizler y\u00fcksekken alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mak (elde tutmak) daha maliyetli oldu\u011fundan, uzun pozisyonlarda (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan i\u015flem) temkinli olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz PPI DXY\u2019yi 98,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: dolar ve tahvil faizleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenince EUR\/USD 1,1710\u2019a, GBP\/USD 1,3520\u2019ye indi; USD\/JPY 156,90. Petrol 101$, alt\u0131n bask\u0131l\u0131; kritik veri takvimi izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46623"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46623\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}