Philip Lane, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Londra\u2019da, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u015fokun etkilerinin 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini, ancak ge\u00e7mi\u015f ortalamalara g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca mevcut enerji \u015fokunun, \u015firket cephesinden (firma taraf\u0131 verileri) ve haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayal\u0131 g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re talebi desteklemeyen (ekonomide al\u0131m iste\u011fini art\u0131rmayan) bir ortamda geli\u015fti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Lane, sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesinin, girdi maliyetlerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan enerji ve ara mal\u0131 maliyetleri) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u201cA\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n olmas\u0131 gerekenden fazla y\u00fckselmesi) riskine i\u015faret ederek, bunun b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn) politikaya verilecek yan\u0131t\u0131 belirleyece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Lane, orta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte ama kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayan bir \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin\u201d \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir ayarlamay\u0131 (faizlerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve kontroll\u00fc ad\u0131m) gerektirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olursa, yan\u0131t\u0131n daha sert (daha agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) veya daha uzun s\u00fcre etkili olacak \u015fekilde verilmesi gerekece\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
Lane ayr\u0131ca, \u201ctalep tahribat\u0131\u201d kanallar\u0131n\u0131n (y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n harcamay\u0131 ve \u00fcretimi kendili\u011finden azaltmas\u0131) para politikas\u0131ndaki (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite duru\u015fu) gerekli ayarlamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k mali geni\u015flemenin (devletin harcama art\u0131rmas\u0131\/vergi indirmesi) ters y\u00f6nde etki yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. D\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 bir arz bozulmas\u0131nda (\u00f6rne\u011fin jeopolitik nedenlerle enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n aksamas\u0131), en uygun yan\u0131t\u0131n bir talep \u015fokuna (harcamay\u0131 art\u0131ran\/azaltan i\u00e7 kaynakl\u0131 oynakl\u0131k) g\u00f6re daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olabilece\u011fini de belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki geli\u015fmelerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son \u015fokla birlikte enerji girdisi maliyetlerinin sert y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131 olas\u0131. Nisan sonundaki s\u0131\u00e7ramada Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. (Vadeli i\u015flem: ileri bir tarihte teslim edilecek \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanmas\u0131.) Bu seviye 2024 sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon tahmini de bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor; enflasyon %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselerek, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan so\u011fuma e\u011filimini tersine \u00e7evirdi. (\u00d6nc\u00fc tahmin: ay tamamlanmadan yap\u0131lan h\u0131zl\u0131 hesap.)<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (ECB) zor bir noktaya getiriyor. 2022 krizine g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa da, tarihsel ortalamalara k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tepki beklenebilir. Kritik de\u011fi\u015fken kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k. Faizlerde \u201c\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u201d bir ad\u0131m yak\u0131nda gelebilir; ancak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa \u201csert\u201d bir yan\u0131t da masada. Bu, daha \u015fahin (enflasyonu kontrol i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; buna g\u00f6re 2026 sonu i\u00e7in faiz indirimi beklentilerini fiyatlamak \u015fimdilik zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlanmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faizler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde de\u011fer kazanan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere bak\u0131labilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonu almak veya sabit faiz \u00f6deyen faiz takas\u0131 (swap) yapmak. (T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri faiz\/d\u00f6viz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme. Faiz takas\u0131: de\u011fi\u015fken faiz yerine sabit faiz \u00f6deme-alma anla\u015fmas\u0131.) Piyasa, ECB\u2019nin ad\u0131m atma iste\u011fini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6rebilir; bu da daha agresif bir politika patikas\u0131na pozisyon alanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) da izlenmesi gereken bir alan; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n izleyece\u011fi yol net de\u011fil. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile resesyondan (ekonomik daralma) ka\u00e7\u0131nma aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, \u00f6zellikle 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yaln\u0131zca %0,1 olmas\u0131yla, fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na uygun bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri veya EUR\/USD gibi d\u00f6viz pariteleri \u00fczerine opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Opsiyon: belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131; zorunluluk de\u011fildir. Parite: iki para biriminin kuru.)<\/p>\n
2022 enerji krizine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enflasyon kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kma riski belirince ECB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercinden (faiz indirimine daha yatk\u0131n) \u015fahine h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn ekonomik zemin daha zay\u0131f; bu da altta yatan talebin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak o d\u00f6nemdeki politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn haf\u0131zas\u0131, yetkilileri \u201cg\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k) korumaya daha duyarl\u0131 k\u0131labilir. Bu kez de enflasyon beklentilerinin kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tepki gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku ECB\u2019yi yeniden k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: Lane, 2022\u2019ye g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ama daha h\u0131zl\u0131 etki uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Enflasyon yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nerse \u201c\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc\u201d faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131nda, kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131kta \u201csert\u201d ad\u0131m masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46620\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}