ECB Ba\u015fekonomisti Philip Lane, Londra\u2019daki bir konferansta yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun **s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131** (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak talebi ve enflasyonu bast\u0131rma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) gerektirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Lane, \u201corta b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte ama \u00e7ok kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayan bir a\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u201d (enflasyonun hedefin bir s\u00fcre \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalmas\u0131) **\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir ayarlamaya** yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini, verilecek tepkinin de \u201cgerekti\u011fi kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veya kal\u0131c\u0131\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan EUR\/USD, 1,1700 civar\u0131ndan toparlanarak **100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n** (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fat\u0131p trendi g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) bulundu\u011fu 1,1708\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Listelenen bir sonraki seviye, 1,1730\u2019daki **20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama** (son 20 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Frankfurt merkezlidir ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyonu %2\u2019ye yak\u0131n tutmak i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 belirler. Kararlar, y\u0131lda sekiz toplant\u0131 yapan Y\u00f6netim Konseyi taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131n\u0131r; Konsey, \u00fclke merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 ile Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde dahil alt\u0131 daimi \u00fcyeden olu\u015fur.<\/p>\n
**Parasal geni\u015fleme** (quantitative easing), ECB\u2019nin piyasadan **devlet veya \u015firket tahvili** gibi varl\u0131klar almak i\u00e7in piyasaya yeni para s\u00fcrmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu uygulama genellikle euronun zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilir. 2009\u201311 d\u00f6neminde, 2015\u2019te ve Covid salg\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda kullan\u0131ld\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sadece faiz indirimiyle enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fman\u0131n zor oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyordu.<\/p>\n
**Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma** (quantitative tightening), parasal geni\u015flemenin tersidir; toparlanma ba\u015flay\u0131p enflasyon y\u00fckselince devreye al\u0131n\u0131r. Yeni tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve vadesi gelen tahvil portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 (yani vadesi dolan tahvilin yerine yenisini almamay\u0131) i\u00e7erir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 genellikle euronun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ECB Ba\u015fekonomisti Lane, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enerji \u015fokuna do\u011frudan yan\u0131t olarak daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikay\u0131 i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ECB\u2019nin ana **mevduat faizini** (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 gecelik paraya uygulanan faiz) %4,75\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; oran son alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r bu seviyede. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyonun \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kalmas\u0131 ve son Nisan 2026 verisine g\u00f6re %3,4 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle piyasa \u015fimdi bu politikan\u0131n ne kadar daha s\u00fcrece\u011fine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in **faiz t\u00fcrevlerini** (faiz hareketlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011ferlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha \u00f6nemli hale getiriyor. **EURIBOR\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemler** (gelecekte belirli bir tarihte, \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan i\u015flem yapma s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) \u015fu anda y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6zellikle yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerinde belirgin bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclmezse, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar faizlerin piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 **opsiyon** (belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin politikas\u0131 euroya temel bir destek sa\u011flad\u0131; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 1,1700 seviyesinden gelen tepki de buna \u00f6rnekti. EUR\/USD \u015fu anda 1,1520 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ancak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) de faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131yla d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckseliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacakken, tahminden zay\u0131f bir sonu\u00e7 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 **euro sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (euro de\u011fer kaybederse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 **korunma** (hedge) ama\u00e7l\u0131 daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku ECB\u2019yi yeniden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d \u00e7izgiye itebilir: Lane s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f sinyali verdi, EUR\/USD 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Piyasada faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131, opsiyonla korunman\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46618\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}