Alt\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,30 geriledi; XAU\/USD, ABD\u2019de \u00fcreticilerin girdi maliyetleri (\u00fcreticinin sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara mal\u0131 ve ham madde fiyatlar\u0131) son d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca 4.699 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Nisan \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE: \u00fcreticinin satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi (Mart: %4,3). \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,2 oldu; bu oran Mart\u2019taki %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ve %4,3 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (T\u00dcFE: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 ile 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD tahvil faizleri y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 2,5 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,488\u2019e geldi (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 2,5 baz puan = %0,025). Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fc) %0,21 artarak 98,49\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) 2026\u2019ya kadar faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) ikinci g\u00fcn de zay\u0131f kald\u0131; ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 etkili olurken Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, ABD-\u00c7in zirvesi i\u00e7in Pekin\u2019e geldi. Tahran\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 talepler aras\u0131nda yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, dondurulan fonlar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131, sava\u015f zararlar\u0131 i\u00e7in tazminat ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde egemenlik yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.650-4.700 dolar band\u0131nda kald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 4.700 dolar; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA: son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) 4.749 dolar ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.780 dolar. Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yava\u015flayabilece\u011fi seviye) 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.683 dolar; ard\u0131ndan 4.600 dolar ve 4 May\u0131s\u2019taki dip seviye olan 4.500 dolar. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret eder) 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve s\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman talebi\u201d (belirsizlikte alt\u0131n gibi varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar aras\u0131nda \u00e7eki\u015fme yarat\u0131yor. Jeopolitik gerilim alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (faiz indirimine kapal\u0131, gerekirse art\u0131r\u0131ma yak\u0131n tutum) ve y\u00fcksek \u00fcretici enflasyonu dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 alt\u0131ndan t\u00fcreyen ara\u00e7lar) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in 4.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede daha \u00e7ok yatay-a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bir seyre i\u015faret ediyor. RSI\u2019nin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi zay\u0131f momentumu (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n ve h\u0131z g\u00fcc\u00fc) dikkate alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 4.600 veya 4.500 desteklerine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (maksimum kay\u0131p \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon alabilir. CBOE verilerine g\u00f6re (CBOE: opsiyon borsas\u0131), b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinde (Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) put opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon (open interest: kapanmam\u0131\u015f toplam s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131) son bir ayda %15 artt\u0131; bu da kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma talebinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2022 ve 2023\u2019te, Fed enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri sert y\u00fckseltirken g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc, k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131yd\u0131. Mevcut piyasa da buna benziyor; Fed yetkilileri daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum, tahvil faizlerini ve dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir \u201cbilinmez\u201d (wildcard) ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc aniden de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n haftalar i\u00e7inde %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131. Bu nedenle, uzun vadeli ve \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2r yazmayan) \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon), ani bir t\u0131rmanma ya da ABD-\u00c7in zirvesinde olas\u0131 bir bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta (hedge: korunma) i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in alttan gelen destek de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli; merkez bankas\u0131 talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir unsur olmaya devam ediyor. 2024 ve 2025 boyunca geli\u015fen \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 rezervlerine (d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n birikimi) d\u00fczenli olarak ekleme yapt\u0131; bu e\u011filim bu y\u0131l da s\u00fcrerek 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta 290 ton daha al\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu taban al\u0131m\u0131, dolar y\u00fckselmeye devam etse bile fiyat\u0131n tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kmemesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilecek bir \u201czemin\u201d olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik denge: \u00dcFE\/T\u00dcFE s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, tahvil faizi ve DXY y\u00fckseldi; XAU\/USD 4.650-4.700 band\u0131nda. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi destek, Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi bask\u0131; 4.700 diren\u00e7, 4.600-4.500 destek, opsiyonlarda put talebi art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46617\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}