BNP Paribas, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131na tavan koymas\u0131 ve s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 (devletin fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak i\u00e7in \u00f6dedi\u011fi destek) art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n kamu maliyesi durumunu de\u011ferlendiriyor. Banka, Brent petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel petrol fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in referans g\u00f6sterge) 2026\u2019da ortalama 92\u2013100 dolar olmas\u0131 halinde s\u00fcbvansiyon maliyetlerinin GSYH\u2019nin (ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,6\u2019s\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Banka bunu Malezya ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; para birimleri mevcut seviyelere yak\u0131n kal\u0131rsa maliyetin GSYH\u2019nin %0,2\u2019si olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n (kurun zay\u0131flamas\u0131) s\u00fcbvansiyon maliyetlerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyor.<\/p>\n
BNP Paribas, ba\u015fka harcamalar k\u0131s\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (devletin gelir-gider fark\u0131) 2026\u2019da parlamentonun belirledi\u011fi GSYH\u2019nin %3\u2019l\u00fck s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda finansman \u015fartlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa (d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma zorla\u015f\u0131r ve pahalan\u0131rsa) Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ve yerel fonlama) h\u00fck\u00fcmetin finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in yeterince b\u00fcy\u00fck olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Analizde Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n kamu borcu oran\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin %40,5\u2019i olarak veriliyor. Ayr\u0131ca incelenen \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde bor\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (vade, para birimi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 kompozisyonu) en k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu ve ABD uzun vadeli faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131 hassas bulundu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Brent ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 98 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz y\u00fcksek maliyet senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n kamu maliyesi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Buna ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin (ABD\u2019nin uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) %4,75 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi de eklenince, d\u0131\u015f kayna\u011fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in ko\u015fullar zorla\u015f\u0131yor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin akaryak\u0131t s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme karar\u0131, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l GSYH\u2019nin %3\u2019l\u00fck yasal s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fma riskini belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Endonezya rupisi (IDR) \u00fczerindeki do\u011frudan bask\u0131 daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geliyor; para birimi son d\u00f6nemde dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 16.500 seviyesini test etti. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kayg\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret eden bir geli\u015fme olarak, Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Endonezya devlet tahvillerinden net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f (giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fark\u0131) 1,2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda IDR\u2019de ek zay\u0131fl\u0131k ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/IDR al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131) almak veya NDF (teslimats\u0131z vadeli i\u015flem; vade sonunda d\u00f6viz teslimi yerine nakit fark \u00f6denir) kullanmak.<\/p>\n
Bu b\u00fct\u00e7e bask\u0131s\u0131 ve kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Bank Indonesia\u2019y\u0131 beklenenden \u00f6nce ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabilir; 2025 sonundaki faiz indirimlerine ra\u011fmen. Kurun savunulmas\u0131 ve devlet tahvillerinin cazibesinin korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (politika faizinin y\u00fckseltilmesi) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131 faiz swap\u0131 (taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ile pozisyon almak daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n alg\u0131lanan kredi riski de (borcunu \u00f6deyememe ihtimali) h\u00fck\u00fcmet borcunun k\u0131r\u0131lgan yap\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle art\u0131yor. Temerr\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta maliyeti, CDS (kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131; borcun \u00f6denmemesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta benzeri s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde son bir ayda 15 baz puan y\u00fckseldi. 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS almak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki bozulmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n ya da bu bozulmadan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flaman\u0131n daha do\u011frudan bir yolu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Akaryak\u0131t tavan\u0131 ve artan s\u00fcbvansiyonlar Endonezya b\u00fct\u00e7esini s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: Brent 92\u2013100$ olursa maliyet GSYH\u2019nin %0,6\u2019s\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kabilir. A\u00e7\u0131k %3 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fabilir; rupide bask\u0131, tahvil \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, CDS y\u00fckseli\u015fi belirgin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46616\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}