Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Minneapolis\u2019teki St. Paul\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen St. Paul B\u00f6lgesi Ticaret Odas\u0131 etkinli\u011finde konu\u015ftu. Kashkari, temel sorunun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve bunun enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131) nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Kashkari, enflasyonun \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bunu %2\u2019ye geri indirmesi gerekti\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in bu %2 hedefini de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi gerekti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Kashkari, enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00f6rne\u011fin enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani art\u0131\u015f gibi d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n) Fed\u2019in sorumlulu\u011funu ortadan kald\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak g\u00f6revi zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran ile ilgili \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde ise enflasyonun %2\u2019ye do\u011fru geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair bir miktar g\u00fcveni oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u015fokun enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc (ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentileri) de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Kashkari, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik dengesi) yatay seyretti\u011fini ve bunu \u201c\u0131l\u0131k\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ayakta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Kashkari, Fed\u2019in politika faizi kararlar\u0131n\u0131n (Fed\u2019in k\u0131sa vadeli temel faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n) mortgage faizleri (konut kredisi faizleri) \u00fczerinde ne kadar etkili olaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fok, WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Fiyatlar daha sonra 95 dolar civar\u0131na otursa da jeopolitik risk primi (risk alg\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle fiyata eklenen fazladan pay) art\u0131k kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde fiyatlara yerle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeni bir gerginlik kolayl\u0131kla yeni bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da ham petrolde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na) kar\u015f\u0131 bir korunma arac\u0131 (hedge; riski dengeleme) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan arz kaynakl\u0131 risklerin (\u00fcretim\/ta\u015f\u0131ma aksamas\u0131 gibi) ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bunun sonucu olarak enflasyon \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kald\u0131. Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019teki endi\u015feleri do\u011fruluyor: d\u0131\u015f \u015foklar enflasyonu %2\u2019ye geri indirmeyi daha zor hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle Fed\u2019den yak\u0131n vadede para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi veya daha destekleyici duru\u015f) sinyali beklenmemeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapan\u0131rsa enflasyon yeniden alevlenir mi? Kashkari, \u015foklar\u0131n Fed\u2019i ba\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131: %2 hedefi de\u011fi\u015fmez. Petrol risk primi kal\u0131c\u0131, T\u00dcFE %3,4; yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46615\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}