USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Yen, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithal enerjiye (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan al\u0131nan petrol ve do\u011falgaz) ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite 157,87 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2019de enflasyon verisinin beklenenden s\u0131cak (enflasyonun beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131) gelmesi, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik de dolara talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 98,50 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve bir haftadan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 yeniden toparlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama: son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) 157,40 civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 154,47 civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 48\u2019e toparland\u0131. MACD (hareketli ortalamalar yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fc ve y\u00f6n\u00fc hakk\u0131nda sinyal veren g\u00f6sterge) negatif b\u00f6lgede kalsa da dengelenmeye i\u015faret eden sinyaller verdi.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 158,00 ve ard\u0131ndan 160,73\u2019te. Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi seviye) 157,40 ve 154,47\u2019de izleniyor. Enflasyon, man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergelerle takip edilir; merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 hedefini esas al\u0131r.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi), fiyatlar\u0131n zaman i\u00e7indeki de\u011fi\u015fimini ayl\u0131k (MoM: bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k (YoY: bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) bazda \u00f6l\u00e7er. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri (\u00f6zellikle yiyecek ve akaryak\u0131t) d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131r. Daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon genelde daha y\u00fcksek faize ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimine yol a\u00e7ar. Faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi ise alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc alt\u0131n faiz getirmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u201celde tutma maliyeti\u201d (faiz geliri f\u0131rsat\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7me) artar.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle yene kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Bu durum, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Japon ekonomisi i\u00e7in olumsuz. Nisan 2026\u2019ya ait ABD enflasyon verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 ile beklentiyi a\u015farak Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131ndan (faizlerin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuldu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131m) uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir sinyal vermedi.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma piyasan\u0131n ana temas\u0131. Piyasa \u015fu anda y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. 2025 sonunda piyasa Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bitirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceyi de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, dolar ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (faiz geliri i\u00e7in dolarda pozisyon tutmay\u0131) yen ta\u015f\u0131maya g\u00f6re daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin ani m\u00fcdahale (kurdaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi durdurmak i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) riskine kar\u015f\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu, 160,73 direncine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. Ayr\u0131ca azami riski netle\u015ftirir; olas\u0131 kay\u0131p, \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Pe\u015fin maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bu yap\u0131 \u201cbull call spread\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiri hedefleyen opsiyon kombinasyonu) \u015feklinde kurulabilir: 158,00\u2019e yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: hakk\u0131n kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 fiyat) call al\u0131p, ayn\u0131 anda 160,00\u2019e yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerin (fiyat\u0131n aniden tersine d\u00f6nmesi) olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku ve s\u0131cak ABD enflasyonu, yende erimeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131: USD\/JPY 157,87\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn y\u00fckseldi. Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 %40 fiyatlan\u0131rken 158-160,73 diren\u00e7; m\u00fcdahale riskine bull call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46614\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}