Commerzbank, ABD\u2019de enflasyonun (fiyatlar\u0131n genel seviyesindeki art\u0131\u015f) y\u00fckselmesi ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131n, g\u00f6reve gelecek Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn erken faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini bildirdi. Banka, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (enflasyonu s\u00fcrekli yukar\u0131 iten etkenler) ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika \u00e7izgisinde tutabilece\u011fini, b\u00f6ylece gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimine) alan\u0131n daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Banka, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 \u015fimdilik ge\u00e7ici (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli) g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ya da daha da y\u00fckselmesi halinde ABD enflasyonunun artabilece\u011fini ve enflasyon beklentilerinin (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki enflasyon tahminleri) yukar\u0131 kayabilece\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
Commerzbank, baz\u0131 FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) \u00fcyelerinin enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini zaten dile getirdi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Enflasyon ne kadar uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa, faiz indirimi yapmak o kadar zorla\u015f\u0131r de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
Commerzbank, politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca son enflasyon verilerinin, Warsh\u2019\u00fcn yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcpheleri art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu ortam\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Son enflasyon verisinin beklentinin \u00fczerinde gelmesiyle, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi (piyasalar\u0131n, hedef ve y\u00f6nlendirmelere inanma d\u00fczeyi) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ciddi bir s\u0131navla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu ifade edildi. D\u00fcnk\u00fc nisan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketim sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,9 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyi (faiz indirimi ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 rahatlatma) zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu enflasyonun \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n, s\u00fcren jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve bunun enerjiye etkisinden beslendi\u011fi belirtildi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 tanker ge\u00e7i\u015fine kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rken Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, ekonomi genelinde maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u015fartlarda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bunu art\u0131k \u201cge\u00e7ici \u015fok\u201d olarak g\u00f6rmesinin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, Warsh\u2019\u00fcn faiz indirimi ad\u0131m\u0131 atmas\u0131n\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n yeni duruma h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi\u011fi kaydedildi. CME FedWatch Tool verilerine g\u00f6re (vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair olas\u0131l\u0131k hesab\u0131), temmuz FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ay \u00f6nce %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn %15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlama, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda daha \u015fahin (faizleri daha y\u00fcksek tutmaya yatk\u0131n) bir Fed\u2019e g\u00f6re pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen dezenflasyon (enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi) ilerlemesinin durdu\u011fu, baz\u0131 FOMC \u00fcyelerinin enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesine (beklentilere yerle\u015fmesine) dair endi\u015felerinin daha hakl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Enflasyon bu kadar y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a, Fed\u2019in itibar kayb\u0131 ya\u015famadan hareket etmesi zorla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, faizlerin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131\u201d varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayanan opsiyon stratejilerinin (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kurulan pozisyonlar) daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi. Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131na (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan, satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) ilginin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da gerileyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Bunun, piyasan\u0131n enflasyon verisi nedeniyle Fed\u2019in hareket alan\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131na inanmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam\u0131n, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 daha fazla gev\u015femeye e\u011filimliyken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekledi\u011fi vurguland\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda faiz y\u00f6n\u00fc fark\u0131) faydalanmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan, alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Dolar\u0131n, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ve \u015fahin Fed nedeniyle destek bulmaya devam edebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku Fed\u2019i k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re Kevin Warsh erken faiz indirimi yapmakta zorlanacak. Temmuz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019ten %15\u2019e indi, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46600\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}