GBP\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda %0,25 gerileyerek 1,3500 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 vard\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2014 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine g\u00f6re g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) %0,2 art\u0131\u015fla 98,50 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch (piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentilerini t\u00fcrev fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) verilerine g\u00f6re, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI \u2014 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki %23,5 seviyesinden %35,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8 oldu; %3,7 beklentisinin ve \u00f6nceki %3,3 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de odak, Per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 1\u00c7 GSYH (GDP \u2014 gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergesi) verisinde. Beklentiler %0,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor; 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme %0,1\u2019di.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan GBP\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama \u2014 son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 1,3530 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi ve 1,3602\u2019deki %61,8 Fibonacci (olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan oran) seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede tutunamad\u0131. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi \u2014 fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 49,6 oldu ve n\u00f6tr seviye olan 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 1,3518, 1,3530, 1,3602; ard\u0131ndan 1,3721 ve 1,3873 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek ise 1,3434; ard\u0131ndan 1,3331 ve 1,3163 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu an g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni, beklentinin \u00fczerindeki enflasyon verisi. %3,8\u2019lik T\u00dcFE, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re %35\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum GBP\/USD paritesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iterek \u00f6nemli teknik seviyelerin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Parite 1,3530\u2019daki hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede temkinli duru\u015f \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini de\u011ferlendirmek isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 1,3434 deste\u011fine yak\u0131n bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla (strike \u2014 opsiyonda i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put \u2014 fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olumlu ekonomik haberlerle sterlinin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi durumunda riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile \u0130ngiltere\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyallerinin \u00e7eli\u015fmesi, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite \u2014 fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortamda straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak \u2014 fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) stratejisi etkili olabilir; piyasa bu hafta gelen z\u0131t verileri fiyatlarken iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket ihtimali artabilir.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer \u0130ngiltere\u2019den gelen olumlu veriler, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu (hawkish \u2014 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek faiz e\u011filimi) g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flarsa, 1,3530 \u00fczerine net bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f izlenecek. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 hareket, tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali verebilir ve 1,3602 direncini hedefleyen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call \u2014 fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. RSI\u2019\u0131n 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n olmas\u0131, ivmenin (momentum \u2014 fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) iki y\u00f6nde de artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: Sterlin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda! GBP\/USD %0,25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3500\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131; ABD T\u00dcFE %3,8 gelince Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali %35,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ngiltere 1\u00c7 GSYH ve kritik diren\u00e7\/destekler izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46599"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46599\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}