Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin ilk saatlerinde 4.700 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ikinci g\u00fcnde de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ancak sat\u0131\u015flar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131, y\u00fcksek enflasyon verileri ve s\u00fcren jeopolitik gerilime ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak faiz getirmeyen (faiz veya kupon \u00f6demesi olmayan) alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan ay\u0131na kadar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k %0,4 artt\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019de kalarak yedi ay\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011finde seyretti. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; bu da alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri (tahvil faizi) y\u00fckseldi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %5,0 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi ise %4 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, gerilim \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde de yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, iki g\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi beklenen Trump\u2013\u015ei g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi ile ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en ve maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren enflasyon verisi) \u00f6ncesinde ve yeni jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler beklenirken temkinli kald\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 4.765\u20134.770 dolar band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali veren \u201c\u00e7ift tepe\u201d formasyonu olu\u015ftu. Destek, 200 saatlik basit hareketli ortalama (SMA, belirli bir d\u00f6nemdeki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) olan 4.655,51 dolar civar\u0131nda izleniyor. MACD (hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) hafif pozitif kal\u0131rken, RSI (g\u00f6receli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; 50 alt\u0131 zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret eder) 50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine, May\u0131s 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, %3,8 ile beklentiyi a\u015fan enflasyon nedeniyle piyasalar daha sert bir Fed\u2019e haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n etkisiyle alt\u0131n 4.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na itilmi\u015fti. Odak, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dizginlemek i\u00e7in ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn ise tablo belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti. Son T\u00dcFE verisi, enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9\u2019a geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,8\u2019e g\u00f6re belirgin bir iyile\u015fme ve Fed\u2019in hedefledi\u011fi seviyeye daha fazla yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131klar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dengeleri k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin beklentiler 2025\u2019teki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 e\u011filimli) duru\u015ftan tamamen tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizine dair piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar), Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar en az bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak i\u015faret ediyor. Bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, alt\u0131n tutmay\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, ABD tahvil faizlerine de yans\u0131d\u0131. Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 unsuru olmaktan uzakla\u015ft\u0131lar. G\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,1\u2019e gerilerken, bu seviye 2025\u2019te 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 %5\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131ran d\u00fczeylere g\u00f6re belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131 genellikle dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na destek verir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler de art\u0131k alt\u0131na ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla daha do\u011frudan destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. 2025\u2019te ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 dolar\u0131 ana \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, mevcut ticaret gerilimleri sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesine neden oluyor. Bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 rol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik viraj: 4.700 dolar alt\u0131 bask\u0131da. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, enflasyon ve tahvil faizleri sat\u0131\u015f getirse de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Fed beklentisi \u015fahinlikten indirime d\u00f6nd\u00fc; jeopolitik riskler destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46591\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}