ING verileri, EUR\/USD\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k **i\u015flem g\u00f6ren (implied) volatilitenin** %5,7\u2019de oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu seviye, **ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilitenin** (fiyat\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte fiilen ne kadar dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) 1 puandan fazla alt\u0131nda ve son be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n alt band\u0131 olan %5,2-%5,3\u2019e yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
**Yatay risk reversal** (ayn\u0131 vadede **euro al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** ile **euro sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r; bu da paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ING, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin biraz artmas\u0131 nedeniyle EUR\/USD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 seansta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa geri \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re parite d\u00fc\u015ferse 1,1650 civar\u0131nda al\u0131m ilgisi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Takip edilecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda Euro B\u00f6lgesi 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme) ikinci tahmini var; beklenti \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,1. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Christine Lagarde ve Philip Lane\u2019in g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmalar, piyasalar\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin **faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131** beklentilerini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortamda EUR\/USD i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k implied volatilitenin %5,7 ile \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesi, **opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n** (gelecekte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin piyasas\u0131) k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nemde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yeni bir trend beklemek yerine **bant i\u00e7i i\u015flem** yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyonlar\u0131n g\u00f6rece ucuz oldu\u011fu bu ortamda, k\u0131sa vadede **prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (opsiyon satarak gelir elde etme) baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131**, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (mevcut fiyattan uzakta) bir call ve bir put sat\u0131p, parite belirlenen iki seviye aras\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim toplamay\u0131 hedefler. Risk reversal\u2019\u0131n yatay olmas\u0131 da, piyasan\u0131n belirgin bir y\u00f6n (yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131) beklemedi\u011fini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son verilerle de uyumlu: Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Nisan **man\u015fet T\u00dcFE** (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %2,6 ile biraz y\u00fcksek gelirken, ABD\u2019de son **tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam** verisinde art\u0131\u015f 160 bine yava\u015flad\u0131. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, ECB \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha belirgin olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, EUR\/USD\u2019nin mevcut bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na da zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nemli teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir risk \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine yerle\u015firse, bu durum enerji ithalat\u0131na daha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan Avrupa ekonomisi \u00fczerinde daha fazla bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu senaryo EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1650\u2019ye do\u011fru itebilir. 1,1650 seviyesi, daha \u00f6nce al\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi bir **destek** (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lge) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, **korunma (hedge)** ama\u00e7l\u0131 daha ucuz put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir ya da 1,1650\u2019yi put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir referans seviye olarak g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenecek ana g\u00fcndem, bu ak\u015fam ECB yetkilileri Lagarde ve Lane\u2019in konu\u015fmalar\u0131. Piyasa, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131n netle\u015fmesini bekliyor; bu durum euroya destek verebilir. Tersine, teredd\u00fct ya da **g\u00fcvercin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha isteksiz, daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) bir s\u00fcrpriz, euronun de\u011fer kaybedip bant alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
F\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sessizlik mi? EUR\/USD\u2019de 3 ayl\u0131k implied volatilite %5,7 ile dipte; risk reversal yatay. ING, petrol kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeyle 1,1650 deste\u011fini, ECB mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 kataliz\u00f6r g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46586"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46586\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}