USD\/INR %0,3 y\u00fckselerek 95,63\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve yeni rekor kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Hareket, ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n yurt i\u00e7inde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar talebiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol maliyetleri Hindistan rupisi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), nisan sonuna do\u011fru d\u00f6vizde (FX: yabanc\u0131 para) spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlara (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemler) y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 gev\u015fetti. Bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikten sonra INR \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 yeniden artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmet, zorunlu olmayan ithalat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve d\u00f6viz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in acil ad\u0131mlar atmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, bundan sonra INR i\u00e7in ana belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR 95,63 ile yeni rekoru a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Hindistan para biriminde (INR) ilave zay\u0131flama beklenmeli. Bunun ana nedeni petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131. Temmuz vadeli Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 112,50 dolar civar\u0131nda kapanarak Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan art\u0131r\u0131yor. Enerji maliyetleri bu kadar y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a, ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n dolar talebinin gev\u015femesi zor.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin spek\u00fclatif d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi, daha zay\u0131f bir rupiye daha fazla tolerans g\u00f6sterildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda benzer ama daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; o d\u00f6nemde RBI\u2019nin piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesi (kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) daha sertti. Bu kez merkez bankas\u0131 daha geri planda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da USD\/INR\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alman\u0131n riskli oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev pozisyonlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler: de\u011feri kur ve faiz gibi bir ba\u015fka varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) INR\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131na en do\u011frudan ula\u015f\u0131m, dolar al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya USD\/INR vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi almak. Bu ara\u00e7lar, parite \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda psikolojik 96,00 seviyesine ya da \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Call opsiyonu kullan\u0131m\u0131, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar; bu da piyasadaki oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksekken daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmetin zorunlu olmayan ithalat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama planlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu m\u00fcdahale ihtimali, USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanan stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket beklemek).<\/p>\n
Kur bask\u0131s\u0131, Hindistan\u2019da son t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin (CPI: enflasyonun yayg\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi) %6,8 a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla e\u015fzamanl\u0131. Enflasyonun RBI hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika se\u00e7eneklerini daralt\u0131yor ve rupiyi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde savunma ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bu makro tablo, INR\u2019de zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz rekor: USD\/INR %0,3 art\u0131\u015fla 95,63\u2019te kapan\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ithalat\u00e7\u0131 dolar talebi ve y\u00fcksek petrol rupiyi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. RBI\u2019nin gev\u015femesi zay\u0131flamay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir; 96,00 masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}