GBP\/USD, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda, 1,3500 seviyesinden (yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011feri) ge\u00e7 saatlerde gelen toparlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite 1,3550\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve bask\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, zay\u0131f yerel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 80\u2019den fazla \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partili milletvekilinin Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131 istifaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmas\u0131yla artan siyasi belirsizlikten olumsuz etkilendi. ABD dolar\u0131 ise ABD enflasyon verilerinin Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc GBP\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 geriledi; 1,3650 civar\u0131ndan 1,3500\u2019\u00fc test ettikten sonra 1,3540 b\u00f6lgesine toparland\u0131. Bu hareket, pariteyi son g\u00fcnlerdeki band\u0131n alt k\u0131sm\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlerde, 70\u2019ten fazla \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partili milletvekilinin Starmer\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde istedi\u011fi de yer ald\u0131. Bu durum piyasa belirsizli\u011fini art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvilleri (gilts) sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %5,81\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 1998\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda (BoE) faiz karar\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde yer alan yetkili Catherine Mann\u2019a \u00e7evrildi. Mann, 2027\u2019ye kadar enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa politika faizini (Bank Rate: BoE\u2019nin temel faiz oran\u0131) art\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy verebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. BoE bu y\u0131l enflasyonun %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin 1. \u00e7eyrek \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH (GDP: ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck) verisinin \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,6 gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7 nedeniyle sterlinin k\u0131r\u0131lgan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) \u00f6nemli olmaya devam ediyor: Fed faizi %5,00 seviyesinde, BoE ise %4,75\u2019te. Bu fark, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolara endeksli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisi ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor; bu da Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) destekliyor. Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi 210 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Ge\u00e7en ay\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,1 oldu. Bu veriler, piyasada Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine en ge\u00e7 gidecek b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan biri olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri kur, faiz gibi ba\u015fka bir g\u00f6stergeye ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, sterlin aleyhine pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fcndemde kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 1,2600\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na (strike price: opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini sa\u011flayan fiyat) sahip GBP\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put option: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, sterlindeki olas\u0131 ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik net bir y\u00f6nl\u00fc strateji sunabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken azami riski \u00f6denen primle (premium: opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip ve hen\u00fcz k\u00e2rda olmayan) GBP\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) satmakt\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,2750 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda se\u00e7ilebilir. Bu strateji, sterlinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyelinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve paritenin yatay ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyredece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlere uygundur. Ama\u00e7, opsiyon primini zamanla erimesinden (zaman de\u011feri kayb\u0131) elde etmektir; bunun i\u00e7in paritenin se\u00e7ilen kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Siyaset ve ABD verileri sterlini k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131! GBP\/USD 1,3500\u2019den tepki sonras\u0131 1,3550 alt\u0131nda; Starmer bask\u0131s\u0131, gilts sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u015fahin Fed\/BoE faiz fark\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Opsiyonlarda put\/OTM call stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46577","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46577\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}