Fransa\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrekte %8,1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu seviye, beklenen %7,8\u2019in \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Veriler, i\u015fsizli\u011fin tahminlerin 0,3 puan \u00fcst\u00fcnde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. A\u00e7\u0131klama Fransa\u2019da 1\u00c7 d\u00f6nemini kaps\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fransa\u2019da ilk \u00e7eyrek i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %8,1 ile beklenti olan %7,8\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, Fransa ekonomisi ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil. Ge\u00e7en ay Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma, 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlam\u0131na gelir) 49,5\u2019e gerileyerek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. \u0130malatta zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00fcye \u00fclkede i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fckselmesi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha temkinli hareket etmesi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. ECB\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda CAC 40 endeksinde (Fransa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen hisse endeksi) put opsiyonu (endeks d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Almanya\u2019dan gelen zay\u0131f sanayi verileri sonras\u0131 Avrupa hisselerinde bir ay i\u00e7inde %4\u2019l\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmeyle g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut tablo, Fransa hisselerinde olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 uygun bir korunma arac\u0131 haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da zay\u0131flayan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD\u2019de ise istihdam verilerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi korudu\u011funa i\u015faret etmesiyle belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma olu\u015fturuyor; bu durum Euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Alman ve ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark (iki \u00fclkenin k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) son bir ayda 15 baz puan (0,15 y\u00fczde puan) a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; Fransa verisi bu e\u011filimi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede EUR\/USD paritesinde (Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri) vadeli i\u015flemlerle (belli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) se\u00e7enekleri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu beklenmedik veri belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131rken, oynakl\u0131k da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. VSTOXX (Euro B\u00f6lgesi hisselerinde beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 16 civar\u0131nda; 2025 sonundaki zirvelere k\u0131yasla daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131 artarsa, VSTOXX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir f\u0131rsat olarak izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz veri: Fransa 1\u00c7 i\u015fsizlik %8,1 ile beklenti %7,8\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Zay\u0131f PMI\u2019la ECB indirimi olas\u0131. CAC40\u2019ta put, EUR\/USD\u2019de short, VSTOXX opsiyonlar\u0131 izlenebilir. Euro bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46575\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}