AUD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 114,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasa, Per\u015fembe ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Pekin\u2019de yap\u0131lacak Trump\u2013Xi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00f6ncesinde sakin seyretti.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) daha \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d (\u015fahin: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz indirimine mesafeli) bir duru\u015f sergileyebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ancak bankan\u0131n faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi (beklemede kalmas\u0131) genel beklenti. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (yetkililerin yenin de\u011ferini desteklemek i\u00e7in piyasada do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) ve Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 koordinasyon, AUD\/JPY y\u00fckseli\u015fine s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte parite, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger SMA\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n (Bollinger bantlar\u0131n\u0131n orta \u00e7izgisi olan basit hareketli ortalama) ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (uzun vadeli basit hareketli ortalama) \u00fczerinde kalarak y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat momentumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 60\u2019a yak\u0131n seyretti; bu, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden olumlu momentum oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7, \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 114,85 seviyesindeydi. Destek, orta bant civar\u0131ndaki 113,75\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan alt banttaki 112,65\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ise 110,05 seviyesinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctaban\u201d (daha derin destek) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni; Japonya ekonomisi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikas\u0131, ABD tahvilleriyle getiri fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faiz getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark) ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan etkilenir. BoJ\u2019un 2013\u20132024 d\u00f6nemindeki \u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikas\u0131 (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutup piyasay\u0131 bol para ile destekleme) yeni zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, 2024\u2019te bu yakla\u015f\u0131mdan kademeli uzakla\u015fma yeni bir miktar destek verdi.<\/p>\n
AUD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi korunuyor ve \u00e7apraz kur May\u0131s 2026 ortas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla 115,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, uzun vadeli kritik deste\u011fin (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi b\u00f6lge) art\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 112,50 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in belirleyici oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m stratejisinin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde al\u0131m) ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131, Avustralya dolar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyor. Politika faizi %4,35\u2019te kal\u0131rken, ilk \u00e7eyrek enflasyonu %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in piyasa yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklemiyor. Bu \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 faiz y\u00f6nlerinde hareket etmesi) pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan ana unsurlardan biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ABD-\u00c7in ili\u015fkilerine odaklanman\u0131n \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde, \u00fcst d\u00fczey zirveler \u201c\u00c7in\u2019e duyarl\u0131\u201d Avustralya dolar\u0131nda belirgin hareketler yaratabiliyordu. Bug\u00fcn de bu hassasiyet s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7in imalat PMI verisinin (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, 50 alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 50 puan\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019den ekonomik istikrar sinyallerinin artmas\u0131 AUD i\u00e7in olumlu bir tetikleyici (fiyat\u0131 hareketlendiren geli\u015fme) olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riski, bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel olmaya devam ediyor. 2024 sonu ve 2025 boyunca Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 kez piyasaya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalede bulundu. Yetkililerin mevcut s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131, kurdaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlediklerini g\u00f6steriyor; yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 s\u00fcrerse keskin ve ani geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, AUD\/JPY \u201ccarry trade\u201dini (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminde bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) son derece cazip k\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. RBA\u2019n\u0131n %4,35\u2019lik faiz oran\u0131, BoJ\u2019un yaln\u0131zca %0,25\u2019lik politika faizine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek; bu fark son bir y\u0131lda daha da a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Bu fark s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun AUD\/JPY pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yarak \u201cswap\u201dtan (gecelik ta\u015f\u0131ma faizi\/pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi) kazan\u00e7 elde etmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani riskleri y\u00f6netmek amac\u0131yla opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. AUD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak veya \u201cbull call spread\u201d (bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) uygulamak, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu y\u00f6ntem, olas\u0131 azami zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar; yetkililerin ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 halinde yenin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilmesi nedeniyle bu yakla\u015f\u0131m daha temkinli kabul edilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY 114\u2019te sakin: Trump\u2013Xi zirvesi \u00f6ncesi bekle-g\u00f6r. RBA \u015fahinli\u011fi ve carry trade y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor; 114,85 diren\u00e7. Ancak Japonya m\u00fcdahale riski sert geri \u00e7ekilme yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46570"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46570\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}