NZD\/USD ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste geriledi; \u00c7ar\u015famba Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,5940 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 yatay seyrederken, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) 2026 2. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentileri hem 12 ayl\u0131k hem de iki y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi 2026 2. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in %2,53\u2019e, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti ise %3,41\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalarla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar Temmuz\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda (yani yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kesin gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor).<\/p>\n
RBNZ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Anna Breman, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyonu g\u00f6steren \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131\u201d k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) ilk \u00e7eyrekte hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu da piyasalar\u0131n May\u0131s\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
28 May\u0131s B\u00fct\u00e7esi \u00f6ncesinde Ba\u015fbakan Christopher Luxon, 2028\u201329\u2019a kadar b\u00fct\u00e7e fazlas\u0131na (devletin harcamadan fazla gelir elde etmesi) d\u00f6nme plan\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. Ayr\u0131ca kamu borcunu GSYH\u2019nin (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) %40\u2019\u0131na do\u011fru indirme hedefini do\u011frulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi s\u00fcrerken ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Kazem Gharibabadi, olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tazminatlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki egemenli\u011fin tan\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD \u015fu anda 0,5940 civar\u0131nda zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bunun arkas\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019dan gelen endi\u015fe verici enflasyon sinyalleri var. Bize g\u00f6re Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskin (siyasi\/askeri geli\u015fmelerin piyasaya etkisi) devam etmesi nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n daha olas\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 28 May\u0131s b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan sonraya vadeli NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan, riskten korunma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama arac\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da artan enflasyon beklentileri tabloyu zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; piyasa art\u0131k Temmuz\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 aksamalar nedeniyle Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, enerjiden gelen bu enflasyon RBNZ\u2019yi zor bir konuma itiyor. Bu senaryoda merkez bankas\u0131 faizi art\u0131rsa bile NZD zay\u0131flayabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yava\u015flayan ekonomi daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti ve enerji giderleriyle bask\u0131lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
28 May\u0131s\u2019taki Yeni Zelanda b\u00fct\u00e7esine yakla\u015f\u0131rken oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert hareket etmesi) artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin maliye planlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi s\u00fcrerken, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 long straddle gibi (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete oynayan) stratejileri inceleyebilir. NZD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %9,8; y\u00fcksek, ancak b\u00fct\u00e7e sonras\u0131 daha da artabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 bask\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor; g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 106,50 seviyesini test etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019te riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: jeopolitik gerilimler dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, Kiwi gibi (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa takma ad\u0131) daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck para birimleri bask\u0131land\u0131. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n borcu azaltma hedefi mali disiplin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu olsa da k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesine kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD\u2019de 0,5900 psikolojik destek seviyesi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6zellikle takip etti\u011fi \u201cyuvarlak\u201d seviye) yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Bu seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, zarar-kes (stop-loss: belli bir zararda otomatik sat\u0131\u015f) emirlerini tetikleyip d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 2025 sonundaki dip b\u00f6lgelere do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 0,5850 civar\u0131nda k\u00e2r-al (take-profit: hedefe gelince kazanc\u0131 kilitleme) hedefiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazanmaya y\u00f6nelik i\u015flemler) makul bir strateji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kiwi\u2019da sat\u0131\u015f r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: NZD\/USD 0,5940\u2019a indi. RBNZ enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckseldi, Temmuz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 petrol ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131s\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk, 0,5900 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}