USD\/JPY paritesi, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in \u201cistenmeyen d\u00f6viz (FX) oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201dna (kurda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanma) ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131 ve 157,80 civar\u0131nda d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck zirveye y\u00f6neldi. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda parite %0,30\u2019dan fazla art\u0131dayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 30 Nisan\u2019daki ad\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131 158,00\u2019e do\u011fru hareketlerin s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla n\u00f6trden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) kal\u0131rken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc toparlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
158,00 \u00fczeri bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019da (SMA: belirli g\u00fcnlerin ortalama fiyat\u0131) 158,71 direncini, ard\u0131ndan 159,00 seviyesini g\u00fcndeme getirir. Daha yukar\u0131da 160,00 da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu seviye Japon yetkililerin piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi bir e\u015fik olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
158,00 a\u015f\u0131lamazsa, odak 157,00 deste\u011finde kal\u0131r. 157,00 alt\u0131na ini\u015f, 156,51\u2019i (11 May\u0131s dip) ve 156,02\u2019yi (7 May\u0131s dip) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
Yen; Japonya ekonomisi, BoJ politikas\u0131, ABD ve Japon tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark ve piyasan\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) etkileniyor. BoJ\u2019nin 2013-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikas\u0131 (faizlerin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, likiditenin bol tutulmas\u0131) yeni zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, 2024\u2019te bu politikan\u0131n kademeli geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 yeni destekledi ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite yeniden 158,00\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131yor; buray\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in kritik bir test olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yukar\u0131 bask\u0131, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131yla destekleniyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi %4,1\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, Japon tahvillerine g\u00f6re fark 310 baz puanda (bp: y\u00fczde 0,01) kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyenler i\u00e7in 158,00 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynar) almak, momentumu (k\u0131sa vadeli ivme) de\u011ferlendirmeye do\u011frudan bir yol. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir atak 158,71 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Ancak parite 162,00\u2019yi a\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Ekim 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert m\u00fcdahaleler unutulmamal\u0131. Bu seviyelerde resm\u00ee ad\u0131m riski ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin 30 Nisan\u2019daki m\u00fcdahalesinin haf\u0131zas\u0131, bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 agresif pozisyon almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya itiyor. 158,00 g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flarsa, 157,00 destek b\u00f6lgesine geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. Bu senaryo, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedeflemek i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynar) almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.<\/p>\n
159,00-160,00 band\u0131nda devlet m\u00fcdahalesi riski belirgin oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek. Bu da opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in \u201cspread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte kullanarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir: \u00f6rne\u011fin bo\u011fa call spread (yukar\u0131 beklentiyle iki call kombinasyonu) veya ay\u0131 put spread (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 beklentiyle iki put kombinasyonu). Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan satmak (volatility selling: dalgalanman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine bahis) ise daha net bir politika sinyali gelene kadar \u00e7ok riskli.<\/p>\n
Genel makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bu gerilimi destekliyor. ABD\u2019de nisan ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonun %2,9 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde isteksiz kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %2,5\u2019te kal\u0131rken, BoJ\u2019ye para politikas\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015f\u00e7a normalle\u015ftirmeyi (s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya kademeli ge\u00e7i\u015f) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme gerek\u00e7esi veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201cFX oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d mesaj\u0131 sonras\u0131 USD\/JPY 157,80\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131, g\u00f6zler 158,00 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda. \u00dcstte 158,71-159,00-160,00; altta 157,00-156,51. Faiz fark\u0131 destekli, m\u00fcdahale riski ve opsiyon maliyeti y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46556\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}